NUNZIUM

Amid escalating Chinese pressure, Taiwan's sovereignty is increasingly under scrutiny. Veteran Hsu Keng-Jui and a network of volunteers vigilantly monitor Chinese ships and aircraft near Taiwan's territorial limit. China, viewing Taiwan as a rebellious province, has been regularly crossing the median line that separates the two territories. In September alone, over 100 aircraft from the People's Liberation Army were directed towards Taiwan, with 40 breaching the median line.

This tactic is part of China's "grey zone warfare"—a strategic move designed to subdue Taiwan's government, its separatist supporters, and foreign allies like the US and Japan without resorting to actual combat. The message is unambiguous: China is asserting its dominance.

As Taiwan's presidential election, scheduled for 13 January, approaches, the political climate is charged. Outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, a staunch defender of Taiwan's sovereignty, is stepping down after serving for eight years. Vice-President William Lai, viewed by China as a hardline separatist, is vying to replace her. Beijing's propaganda insinuates that electing Lai could precipitate conflict, a scare tactic to influence the election's outcome.

Despite this, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintains a strong following, demonstrated by a recent rally that attracted around 60,000 supporters. President Tsai's support for the LGBT community and legalization of same-sex marriage distinguish her from China. However, issues such as rising costs, unaffordable housing, and dwindling opportunities are driving young voters towards the Taiwan People's Party and its populist candidate Ko Wen-je.

In response to China's relentless pressure, the DPP government has invested in new submarines, acquired more F16 fighter jets and missiles from the US, and reintroduced a 12-month compulsory military service. However, the KMT's vice-presidential candidate, Jaw Shaw Kong, criticizes the submarine program as wasteful and advocates dialogue with Beijing to achieve peace.

Taiwan's air force, with fewer than 300 fighter jets, many of which are over 25 years old, is feeling the strain. Polls suggest a narrow victory for Lai and the DPP in January, potentially leading to an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term.

China's propaganda targets both Taiwan's older population and young voters through platforms like TikTok and YouTube, aiming to sway perceptions towards anti-independence sentiments. Beijing's ultimate objective is to have Taiwan sign a peace agreement without resorting to warfare.

Tensions are also escalating in the South China Sea, with recent incidents involving Chinese ships and Philippine boats. Despite Chinese diplomat Wang Yi blaming the Philippines for provoking trouble at sea, President Ferdinand Marcos remains resolute in not relinquishing "a single square inch of our territory".

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his intention to reunify Taiwan with mainland China to President Joe Biden during a recent summit in San Francisco. Xi prefers peaceful reunification, but the timing remains uncertain. This warning is significant given China's increasing aggression towards Taiwan and the forthcoming presidential election.

In this intricate geopolitical landscape, Taiwan's struggle for sovereignty persists. The outcome of the impending election could shift the balance in a region already laden with tension. As Taiwan stands on the brink of change, the world watches attentively.