NUNZIUM

Nestled in the South Caucasus, Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but home to around 120,000 ethnic Armenians, has been a focal point of contention between Armenia and Azerbaijan for decades. The recent surge in military activities has reignited the long-standing tensions, tracing back to a separatist war that concluded in 1994.

Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, recently proclaimed sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, following a 24-hour military offensive against ethnic-Armenian forces. Labelled as an "anti-terror" operation, it called for the dissolution of Karabakh's "illegal regime". The offensive resulted in significant casualties, with reports indicating at least 200 fatalities and over 400 injuries, and led to the displacement of thousands of civilians.

The escalating conflict prompted a ceasefire agreement, but allegations of violations quickly surfaced. Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of launching an attack near the town of Sotk, a claim strongly refuted by Azerbaijan. The ceasefire terms, drafted by Azerbaijan and Russia, called for the disbandment of local Karabakh forces and the withdrawal of Armenian troops.

The conflict has sparked political unrest, with thousands of protesters in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, demanding Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's resignation over his crisis management. Amid the chaos, discussions on "issues of re-integration" were held in Yevlakh, involving officials from Baku and Karabakh's Armenian representatives.

Russia, meanwhile, played a pivotal role by evacuating 5,000 people from hazardous zones. However, the ceasefire terms and impending negotiations were perceived by Caucasus specialist Thomas de Waal as biased towards Azerbaijan, leaving ethnic Armenians vulnerable. Pashinyan refuted any involvement in drafting the ceasefire text and urged Russian peacekeepers to ensure the safety of the local population.

The recent turmoil echoes the two wars fought over Nagorno-Karabakh post the Soviet Union's collapse, including the six-week war in 2020. That conflict resulted in several thousand deaths and enabled Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, to regain territory, thereby isolating the ethnic Armenians. Moreover, Azerbaijan imposed a nine-month blockade on the only road into Karabakh from Armenia, leading to critical shortages of essential supplies.

International reactions to the conflict have been diverse. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Azerbaijan to halt its military actions, while Turkey, Azerbaijan's close ally, defended Baku’s actions. The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern over the sharp escalation and appealed for an end to the violence. The EU and UN, meanwhile, have advocated for an immediate ceasefire and respect for the 2020 ceasefire agreement.

The Nagorno-Karabakh situation represents a complicated mix of historical disputes, geopolitical interests, and ethnic tensions. As the conflict persists, the lives of ethnic Armenians are caught in the crossfire, trapped between power politics and the fight for survival. The international community watches with apprehension, hoping for a peaceful resolution that safeguards the rights and safety of Nagorno-Karabakh's inhabitants. The power and politics chess game continues, with the people of Nagorno-Karabakh serving as pawns in this broader geopolitical match.