NUNZIUM

As global tensions rise and alliances are tested, the upcoming NATO summit on July 11 in Vilnius, Lithuania, is of significant importance. With Finland having already joined the alliance earlier this year, NATO aims to admit Sweden by this date. However, Turkey and Hungary are currently blocking Sweden's accession, with Turkey accusing Sweden of allowing Kurdish terror groups to operate within its borders and being complicit in far-right protests and Quran burnings. This objection comes at a time when NATO has experienced increased unity and defense spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Turkey's veto could undermine this progress.

The deadline for Sweden's accession holds critical implications for the Western alliance, as missing it could signal weakness to adversaries. In response, the US and UK are offering Sweden assurances and prioritizing its accession, while Turkey seeks approval from the US Congress for its purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. Concurrently, Russia claims to have thwarted a major Ukrainian attack in Donetsk, killing 300 troops and destroying 16 tanks. This increase in military activity suggests a Ukrainian counter-offensive may have begun, with Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting troops "moving forward" towards Bakhmut.

Meanwhile, in the Asia-Pacific region, China and Russia conducted a joint aerial strategic patrol on May 24, 2022, marking their sixth joint patrol over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. This comes amid rising tensions in the region and no meeting between Chinese and US defense chiefs at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The US has made provocations, including sending a spy plane to the South China Sea and partnering with Canada in a warship transit in the Taiwan Straits. NATO's potential expansion into the Asia-Pacific region has raised concerns after Japan announced a plan to open NATO's first liaison office in Asia. The China-Russia joint strategic patrol serves as a counterbalance to US hegemonic actions and demonstrates their capabilities in safeguarding peace and stability in the West Pacific.

Back in Europe, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam was destroyed in southern Ukraine, causing thousands of people to be evacuated from surrounding areas due to flooding. Ukraine's military and NATO accuse Russia of blowing up the dam, while Russia blames Ukraine. The dam, built during the Soviet era, is one of six dams along the Dnipro river and holds water equal to the Great Salt Lake in Utah, US. The breach in the dam has caused flooding downstream in the direction of Kherson, impacting 16,000 people living in the critical zone and contaminating the river with 150 tonnes of industrial lubricant. The International Atomic Energy Agency is monitoring the situation, as the dam supplies water to communities, farmers, and the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia. The dam is also vital for carrying water to Russian-occupied Crimea, and its destruction could worsen Ukraine's energy problem and disrupt irrigation in Crimea.

As the global chessboard of conflict unfolds, the upcoming NATO summit and Sweden's potential accession hold significant implications for the balance of power. The interconnected nature of global politics means that decisions made in one part of the world can have ripple effects elsewhere, and all eyes will be on Vilnius come July 11. Will NATO maintain its unity and continue to expand, or will internal divisions and external pressures cause the alliance to falter? Only time will tell.