NUNZIUM

The tensions between the European Union and Russia have grown over the Ukraine war in the last two months. They reached a maximum during the night between November 15 and 16, 2022, when two explosions by Russian-made missiles reached a small village in Poland, right at the border with Ukraine, making two dead. An emergency meeting was held between NATO and G7 members (the G20 in Bali was ongoing then). However, a confrontation did not occur, with Russia denying responsibility and the uncertainty of the strike source. After the event, Russia hit the whole Ukraine territory with missiles, mainly targeting energy and military facilities, civil buildings, and city centres.

Consequently, on November 23, the European Parliament declared Russia a "state sponsor of terrorism" over the "brutal and inhumane" acts inflicted upon Ukraine and its citizens since the launch of the invasion. A few hours after the vote, the EU Parliament's official website was down due to a "sophisticated cyberattack". The European Parliament President Roberta Metsola declared that a pro-Kremlin group had claimed responsibility. In the meantime, Kyiv was left without water and electricity after new Russian strikes caused power outages across Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova. Authorities in Lviv, western Ukraine, also reported that the "whole city" was without electricity after fresh Russian rocket attacks. The Russian strikes continued in the following weeks. Due to the Russian strikes, on November 25, more than 6 million households were without power, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

On December 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin met his German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, over the phone. He told him that Moscow's attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure were "inevitable". The Kremlin raised attention to the destructive line of Western states, including Germany, pumping the Kyiv regime with weapons and training the Ukrainian military. Putin said that "political and financial support" from Ukraine's Western allies leads to the fact that Kyiv completely rejects the idea of any negotiations. On the other hand, Scholz condemned Russian airstrikes against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and stressed Germany's determination to support the Ukrainians in ensuring their defence capabilities against Russian aggression. In the meantime, the European Union reached a consensus on the price to cap Russian oil just days before its ban on most imports comes into force. The bloc's 27 member states agreed to set the cap at $60 a barrel. Although Russia previously warned that it would stop supplying countries that adhere to the cap, it means that their income from oil sales will necessarily decrease.

On December 5, attacks killed three people and damaged two strategic nuclear bombers in separate blasts at two Russian airfields. One of these airfields - Engels, located 500 kilometres east of Ukraine's border in the Saratov region - was attacked through drones. The other, located southeast of Moscow, was hit by a fuel tanker explosion that caused the three deaths. Russian regional governors have repeatedly blamed Ukraine for these cross-border attacks on their soil. Still, Kyiv has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Russian massive attacks continued until the end of December, leaving millions without electricity in the upcoming winter.

In December, several bilateral meetings took place where leaders discussed the Ukraine crisis. On December 1, Chinese President Xi Jinping and visiting President of the European Council Charles Michel met to strengthen strategic communication and cooperation between the EU and China. Among other topics, Xi and Michel exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis. Xi expounded on China's position, noting that a political settlement of the crisis best serves Europe's interests and the common interests of all countries in Eurasia. China will remain on the side of peace and continue to play a constructive role in its way, Xi said. On December 19, Putin visited his close ally and strongman Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus. His arrival in Minsk came hours after Russian forces launched a swarm of attack drones at critical infrastructure in Kyiv, which provoked emergency blackouts in a dozen Ukrainian regions. Belarus, which relies on Moscow for cheap oil and loans, has so far resisted outright unification with Russia despite being a key ally in the war. However, earlier in October, Belarus announced the formation of a joint regional force with Moscow, fuelling concerns Minsk could also send troops to Ukraine. Until today, however, Belarus did not directly join the war. On December 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington to thank US leaders and the Americans for their support. He pledged there would be "no compromises" in trying to bring an end to the war. President Joe Biden and Congress responded with billions in new assistance and a pledge to help Ukraine pursue a "just peace." Mr Zelensky said that "just peace is no compromises. The war would end once we restore Ukraine's sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity."

On January 5, Putin met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a phone conversation. In light of Erdogan's readiness to mediate a political solution to the conflict, Putin reiterated that Russia is open to serious dialogue. He added that Kyiv must meet demands, with the due account taken of the new territorial realities. According to the Kremlin, Putin and Erdogan also discussed the agreements reached in Istanbul to export Ukrainian grain and unblock Russian food and fertilizer exports. A few hours after the call, Putin ordered his troops to observe a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine over Orthodox Christmas on Jan. 6-7. However, this pause did not lead to any negotiation table, with Kyiv accusing the Kremlin of "cynical propaganda".

The Ukraine crisis has yet to have a favourable negotiation in sight today. In the last few weeks, the US and its allies have decided further to sustain the Ukrainian army in its military objectives. On January 19, the US expressed its will to support Ukraine in retaking all territory until Crimea. These days the allies are deciding on providing long-range missiles, tanks, and new weapons to Ukraine. A lengthy debate revolved around providing German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which was approved today, January 23. In the meantime, the Kremlin is threatening that new weapons for Kyiv will cause a 'global catastrophe' as it is pushing the world to a terrible war.