NUNZIUM

The Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) is where the United Nations come together to act towards achieving the world's collective climate goals agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris on December 12 2015. Its goal is to limit global warming to below 2C (Celsius degrees), preferably to 1.5C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Earlier this year, at COP 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, leaders recognized that more effort would be needed to achieve the objective of 1.5C. Unfortunately, scientists are finding out that even this best-case scenario may not be enough to avoid dramatic and profound changes in the Earth's climate.

A recent study published in Science shows that 49% of glaciers would disappear under the most optimistic scenario of 1.5C warming within 2100 AD. However, if global heating continues under the current scenario (reaching 2.7C of warming), losses would be more significant, with 68% of glaciers disappearing. If this happened, almost no glaciers would be left in central Europe, western Canada and the US by the end of the next century. The research team of scientists led by Dr Robert W. McNabb (UK) used two decades of satellite data to map the planet's glaciers with greater precision than ever before. Previous models relied on measurements of specific glaciers. Scientists would then extrapolate that information, but now they can get precise data points on each of the planet's 200,000 glaciers. These data gave insight into how many would be lost under different climate change scenarios. In particular, it was possible to observe mountain glaciers. Mountain glacier melt is believed to contribute to more than a third of sea level rise. A lot of this loss is unavoidable, but the magnitude of loss is directly related to temperature increases, so acting on the climate crisis is vital to contain this phenomenon. The result of the study indicates that mountain glacier melt would significantly raise the sea level. Moreover, it threatens the water supply to 2 billion people and increases the risk of natural hazards such as flooding.

After the alarming temperatures registered at the beginning of the year in central Europe, and the recent and worrisome observations from the Alps' glaciers, science is now getting more accurate in indicating the extent of the effects of global warming. While rising sea levels were initially the primary concern, water droughts may be a more imminent issue involving largely populated areas. According to the latest observations, this a problem that may become critical in just a few decades.