NUNZIUM

News That Matters

13/01/2024 ---- 05/02/2024

Amid the aftermath of the recent Israel-Hamas war, global attention is now shifting towards the escalating conflict in Yemen. The Red Sea, a strategic maritime route carrying an estimated 12% of global trade, is the latest epicenter of tensions. The United States and Britain have launched strikes against 36 Houthi targets in Yemen in response to attacks on American and international interests by Iran-backed groups. These strikes were executed by US warships and American and British fighter jets and were not limited to one night, one target, or one group.

The Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, have been a significant adversary for the U.S. since the Hamas-Israel conflict began on October 7. This conflict resulted in over 1,200 deaths and about 250 hostages. The Health Ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza reported more than 26,000 deaths and over 64,400 wounded since the war's inception. The Houthis have been conducting frequent missile or drone attacks against commercial and military ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

In response to the escalating tensions, the European Union plans to launch a naval mission, Aspides, on February 19. The mission aims to safeguard commercial shipping in the Red Sea from missile attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi attacks have caused major shipping companies to opt for longer, costlier routes, leading to shipping delays and temporary production halts in some European factories. These disruptions have triggered concerns of potential inflation in Western economies.

Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, and Italy, five EU member states, have publicly committed to the mission. Unlike the US and UK's Operation Prosperity Guardian, which has bombed multiple Houthi targets, the EU's mission will solely focus on protecting ships and intercepting incoming missiles. The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, assured that the mission's capabilities will be "proportionate to the threat" and will not include any operations on land, only at sea.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi militants attacked an oil tanker, Marlin Luanda, in the Gulf of Aden, causing a fire. The British oil tanker was operated by the commodities group Trafigura. The Houthi militants claimed responsibility for the attack, which they say was in retaliation to the "American-British aggression against Yemen" and in support of the Palestinian people.

The ongoing conflict within Yemen between Houthi forces and a Saudi-backed coalition has led to a humanitarian crisis. The conflict, which began with the Houthi forces taking over the capital Sanaa in 2014, escalated into a wider war in 2015 when a Saudi-led coalition intervened. The United Nations Development Programme reported in 2021 that the conflict has resulted in up to 377,000 deaths, with more than half of those from indirect causes associated with the conflict, such as lack of food, water, and healthcare.

The escalating tensions in the Red Sea carry high stakes for not only the nations directly involved but also for global trade and security. The world watches closely as the ripples of this conflict continue to spread, waiting to see how the situation will unfold.

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In January 2024, a meeting of eurogroup finance ministers was convened in Brussels, graced by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Netherland’s Finance Minister Steven Van Weyenberg. The primary focus of the meeting revolved around the topic of interest rates. Despite market speculation of potential rate cuts in March or April, the ECB, led by Lagarde, expressed a commitment to maintain high benchmark rates until inflation returns to the 2% target. This stance is driven by concerns over high borrowing costs and associated risks.

This speculation of rate cuts by central banks, including the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve, previously led to a boost in stock market indexes towards the end of 2023. However, the optimism has since been tempered in 2024, with stock prices cooling off due to worries about weak economic growth and geopolitical disruption, including the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, conversely, is expected to initiate a cut in its key rate by mid-2024, as indicated by senior Fed officials. This follows the decision to maintain borrowing costs at a 23-year high on January 31, 2024, with target benchmark interest rates held between 5.25% and 5.5%.

Inflation in Europe, which hit a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, has since fluctuated, rebounding to 2.9% in December from 2.4% in November. This fluctuation is largely attributed to falling energy prices and easing supply chain bottlenecks. The high prices have had a widespread impact, affecting services and wages across the economy.

The economy of the 20 European Union member countries that use the euro currency saw a marginal contraction of 0.1% in the July-September quarter. This sluggish growth coupled with the impact of higher interest rates has sparked further speculation about potential rate cuts. The ECB's meeting on January 25 was expected to provide significant insights into the timing of these potential cuts.

In the U.S., inflation rose to 3.4% in December 2023, up from 3.1% in November, exceeding the 2% inflation target set by central banks, including the Bank of England and the ECB. The Bank of England Bank Rate has remained steady at 5.25% since August of the previous year, while the ECB has kept its main refinancing rate at an all-time high of 4.5%.

Speculation was rife that the Fed would announce its first interest rate cut since 2019 at its March FOMC meeting. However, stronger than expected economic data has led to a recalibration of these expectations, with the current probability of a March rate cut dropping to 49% from a previous 80%.

Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle has suggested that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in March due to potential risks to the labor market. Despite the labor market's current robustness, there are growing concerns of potential job losses as corporate layoffs have seen an uptick in recent weeks.

In summary, central banks worldwide continue to grapple with the delicate balance of controlling inflation while promoting economic growth. The effectiveness of their strategies will become clearer in the coming months.

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The Gaza region, currently in the throes of a devastating military offensive led by Israel for almost four months, has become a bleak landscape of human suffering. Over 26,000 lives have been lost, 85% of its 2.3 million population displaced, and a significant portion of its citizens are teetering on the edge of starvation. Amidst this turmoil, the United Nations' top court has recently intervened, ordering Israel to halt further death, destruction, and, most alarmingly, alleged acts of genocide.

This order is a development in a genocide case initiated by South Africa, which has put Israel's actions under legal examination. Court President Joan E. Donoghue voiced grave concern over the ongoing loss of life and human suffering in Gaza. However, the ruling does not mandate a cessation of Israel's military campaign, making its implementation complex without a cease-fire or pause in the hostilities.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed the court's readiness to consider genocide charges and pledged to continue the war. This stance was taken on the eve of International Holocaust Remembrance Day, a stark reminder of the horrors of genocide.

The conflict in Gaza has been characterized by significant loss and destruction. In addition to the Palestinian casualties, an attack by Hamas militants on Israeli communities on October 7 resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and 250 kidnappings. The court has urged Hamas to release the remaining hostages.

The court's interim ruling has been applauded by Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki and the South African government. However, it is uncertain whether Israel will adhere to the court's orders, which include preventing genocide, providing basic aid to Gaza's population, preventing and punishing any incitement to genocide, and reporting on measures taken within a month.

The case, the most significant international challenge to Israel’s war in Gaza, alleges that Israel's actions are genocidal as they aim to destroy a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial, and ethnical group. Israel has refuted the filing, stating that their operations in Gaza were a response to attacks from Palestine Islamic Jihad and Hamas militants.

As the legal battle unfolds, the International Court of Justice's limited enforcement capabilities and the UN's role in implementing the decision have sparked debates about the role of international law and potential shifts in diplomatic relations. With the final ruling potentially years away and the dire situation in Gaza escalating, international observers await justice and peace for the embattled region.

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The American political arena is currently dominated by the figure of Donald Trump, the former President who is simultaneously embroiled in legal battles and successfully navigating the early stages of the 2024 election primaries.

Trump's legal troubles intensified when a New York jury ordered him to pay $83.3m (£65m) in damages to columnist E Jean Carroll for defamation during his presidency in 2019. This verdict follows a previous civil case that found Trump guilty of defaming and sexually assaulting Carroll in the 1990s. Despite his intention to appeal the ruling, which he has dismissed as a witch hunt, Trump holds the dubious distinction of being the first US president charged with a crime, facing four criminal cases encompassing 91 felony counts.

Despite these legal hurdles, Trump's political aspirations remain undeterred. As the Republican party's frontrunner, he is poised to challenge current US President Joe Biden in the November 2024 general election. Following victories in the initial Republican contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump's position as the presumptive nominee is solidifying, in spite of opposition from the likes of Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador.

Haley, who plans to continue her campaign in South Carolina, faces a challenging path. Despite pressure from high-profile Republicans to withdraw following Trump's New Hampshire victory, she remains steadfast. Her campaign maintains that 11 of the 16 states voting on Super Tuesday (March 5) have open or semi-open primaries where registered Independents can vote, offering her potential support. However, Trump's campaign has cautioned Haley to unite behind Trump or brace for a resounding defeat in her home state.

In a strategic move, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump, leaving Haley as the lone GOP challenger to the former President. Despite trailing both Trump and Haley in the primaries, DeSantis's endorsement of Trump signals a growing consolidation of support for Trump within the party.

Trump's legal challenges continue to mount, with accusations of a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election by pressuring state officials to fabricate votes, overturn state election results, scheme to appoint fake electors, and disrupt the counting of official election results. Trump's legal team has sought blanket immunity, warning of the danger of politically motivated prosecutions of future presidents. However, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and Special Counsel Jack Smith argue that granting immunity would permit future presidents to engage in criminal activity without fear of prosecution.

The legal and political saga of Donald Trump is a compelling chapter in American politics. As he simultaneously contends with courtroom battles and electoral victories, the upcoming months will be pivotal in his political trajectory. The question remains: will he triumph in both arenas, or will his legal struggles overshadow his political ambitions? The answer will unfold with time.

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The Red Sea, a pivotal conduit for international commerce, has recently emerged as a conflict zone, significantly impacting global trade. The waterway, responsible for 12% of global seaborne trade, has experienced disruptions due to attacks on civilian ships involving missiles, drones, and hijackings. This conflict, the most severe in decades, has affected shippers worldwide, leading to increased costs and economic apprehension.

The unrest began with the onset of the Israel-Hamas war. Despite retaliatory measures by the U.S. and its allies, along with a multinational naval operation, Houthi militants' assaults persist. This situation has prompted sailors to demand higher wages and insurance rates to soar, prompting shipping lines to circumvent the waterway.

The crisis has notably affected the oil market, with the volume of oil destined for Europe from the Middle East nearly halving due to Houthi attacks. This has intensified competition for crude supply that bypasses the Suez Canal, significantly affecting European markets. Consequently, Brent crude futures, pricing nearly 80% of the world's traded oil, recently reached their most bullish point in two months.

The Houthi rebels, mainly targeting vessels associated with Israel, have focused their attacks in the strait of Bab al-Mandeb, a significant trade route. This has led to some of the world's largest shipping companies suspending transit in the area, forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa, resulting in increased freight rates.

The crisis has also significantly impacted the strategic Suez Canal, especially since the Ukraine war and sanctions against Russia have increased Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern oil. With the volume of Middle Eastern crude heading to Europe nearly halving, the Suez Canal's significance has grown.

The crisis's ripple effects have extended to China's oil trade with Iran and India's imports of Russian crude, causing disruptions and price hikes. Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s top crude oil supplier in 2023, shipping a record 107.02 million metric tonnes last year.

The crisis has also had human implications. The Greek-owned bulk carrier Zografia was recently hit by the Houthis, causing minor damage but thankfully no injuries among the 24 crew onboard.

Despite the U.S. and UK launching airstrikes against Houthi targets and seizing Iranian weapons destined for the Houthis, the rebels have pledged retaliation, heightening fears of further conflict and economic repercussions.

The Red Sea instability is affecting shipping routes and the use of the Suez Canal. If the situation escalates, European consumers could face higher energy costs, delayed shipments, and potential inflation. Major companies like Tesla, Volvo, and Suzuki have halted production at European factories due to supply chain disruptions caused by the Red Sea attacks. Shell has suspended all Red Sea shipments, and Qatar's prime minister has warned of impacts on liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments.

In conclusion, the Red Sea crisis underscores our global interconnectedness and the fragile equilibrium of international trade. It is evident that a resolution to the conflict is urgently needed for the stability of the global economy.

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The race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has been marked by dramatic political and legal developments. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once a potential contender against Donald Trump, has suspended his campaign following a significant lag behind Trump and Nikki Haley in the Iowa caucus. Despite DeSantis' impressive credentials and Trump's endorsement in his gubernatorial victories, he fell nearly 30 points short of Trump, leaving Nikki Haley as Trump's sole GOP challenger.

Trump's campaign, despite being overshadowed by a series of civil and criminal indictments, has been dominating the field. His victory in the Iowa caucuses was record-setting, although it also exposed his vulnerabilities, particularly among suburban dwellers and college graduates. Approximately a quarter of GOP caucus-goers expressed concern over his legal troubles.

These legal issues include allegations of sexual abuse and defamation. Trump was found guilty of sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll in 1996 and defaming her in 2019, leading to a $5 million damage payout. A separate jury will determine additional defamation damages. Despite these challenges, Trump continues to campaign while attending daily court proceedings in New York.

In another legal development, Trump's bid to dismiss a case accusing him of plotting to overturn the 2020 presidential election results was rejected by a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. US District Judge Tanya Chutkin dismissed Trump's claim for immunity as a former president, stating that the presidency does not offer a "get out of jail free pass."

Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador, remains optimistic about her presidential prospects. Despite not securing the second-place finish in Iowa, she believes her campaign has momentum. Haley contends that many Americans want fresh, younger leadership and not another Trump-Biden rematch. However, Trump's campaign has warned her of potential defeat and embarrassment in her home state of South Carolina if she fails to unite behind Trump.

The Appeals Court proceedings' pace may determine if Trump faces trial before the US presidential election on November 5, 2024. Both Trump and Special Counsel Smith have requested the US Supreme Court's intervention. The DC trial is scheduled to commence on March 4, 2024.

Despite the ongoing legal battles, Trump remains the favorite for the Republican nomination. The question that lingers is whether his political triumphs will be overshadowed by his legal troubles. The answer rests with the American public, whose votes will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.

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Kenyan President William Ruto plans to eliminate visa requirements for all African visitors. This announcement, made during an international conference, aligns with the African Union's (AU) decade-long goal of promoting intra-African travel and reflects the broader continental trend of easing travel restrictions.

Currently, only Seychelles, The Gambia, and Benin offer visa-free entry to all African citizens, according to a 2022 AU-endorsed report. However, many African nations are progressively simplifying entry processes and lifting restrictions for fellow African visitors. This progress, albeit slow, is marked by regional deals and bilateral agreements. For instance, despite being ranked 31st on the Visa Openness Index out of 54 states in 2022, Kenya is making strides towards improvement. The AU has also introduced the African passport in 2016, aiming to enable visa-free travel across the continent, although its distribution has been limited due to concerns over security, smuggling, and local employment markets.

While the continent is gradually liberalizing its travel policies, it simultaneously wrestles with underreported humanitarian crises. Care International's 2023 "Breaking the Silence" report reveals that the top ten overlooked humanitarian crises are all in Africa, including hunger in Angola, chronic malnutrition in Burundi, and high child mortality in the Central African Republic.

Despite the gravity of these crises, media attention has been sparse. An analysis of five million online articles from January 1 to September 30, 2023, by media monitoring service Meltwater found that only 77,000 addressed Africa's humanitarian disasters, while the new Barbie film received over 273,000 mentions. This lack of coverage is not indicative of the severity of the crises. For instance, Angola and Burundi, topping the list of overlooked crises, have over seven million people and nearly 5.6 million children in need of aid due to drought, flooding, hunger, and chronic malnutrition, respectively.

As we move into 2024, it is estimated that nearly 300 million people worldwide will require humanitarian aid, with almost half of them in Africa. This highlights the urgency for improved media and political cooperation to bring these emergencies to the forefront of global consciousness.

In parallel with these humanitarian efforts, African nations like Rwanda are also progressing towards visa-free travel. Rwandan President Paul Kagame has announced visa-free entry for all Africans, aiming to stimulate the free movement of people and trade. Once enacted, Rwanda will join Gambia, Benin, and Seychelles as the fourth African country to abolish travel restrictions for Africans.

Further, Zimbabwe and Botswana are also abolishing passport requirements for each other's citizens, marking another step towards stronger African unity and collaboration. These initiatives, along with Kenya's and Rwanda's plans, represent a growing momentum towards visa-free travel within Africa, anticipated to bring economic benefits and trade opportunities.

The path towards a borderless Africa is ongoing, but the steps taken by these nations signal a hopeful future. As Africa continues to dismantle its borders, it is incumbent upon the world to increase its understanding and awareness of the continent's unseen humanitarian crises. This dual unraveling is essential to fully appreciate the richness and complexity of this diverse continent and its people.

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The historical tension between Pakistan and Iran has recently intensified, marked by cross-border strikes that have taken place along their shared 900-kilometer border. This volatile region, home to the Baloch people who have long resisted governance from both Islamabad and Tehran, has been a focal point of insurgency for decades.

Recently, Iran struck Pakistan’s Balochistan province, an act that Pakistani authorities report resulted in the death of two children and multiple injuries. Iran countered this claim, insisting it had only targeted "Iranian terrorists" within Pakistani borders. Pakistan responded with targeted military actions on supposed separatist hideouts in Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan province, leading to the reported death of at least 10 militants, as stated by Pakistan's Foreign Ministry.

This conflict escalation is set against a larger regional backdrop, with Iran's Middle Eastern allies attacking Israeli forces and their allies amidst the ongoing Gaza war. Just prior to the strikes on Pakistan, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Iraq and Syria, allegedly targeting an Israeli spy base and “anti-Iran terror groups.”

The Iran-Pakistan border region is home to several groups, including Jaish al-Adl, a separatist militant organization that has claimed responsibility for attacks on Iranian targets and has been designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US State Department.

As a result of these strikes, diplomatic relations have been strained, with Pakistan recalling its ambassador from Iran and suspending high-level visits. Despite the rising tensions, both nations have hinted at a desire to avoid further escalation. However, following Pakistan's strikes, Iran conducted a large-scale military exercise off its southwest coast, and Pakistan warned of "serious consequences" for what it deemed an "illegal" attack.

This conflict has further complicated the already unstable regional security situation, with accusations from both nations of harboring militant groups that carry out attacks on their territories. Global powers, including the US, China, Russia, and the European Union, have voiced their concerns about the escalating violence and its potential to destabilize the Middle East.

The situation has garnered the attention of world leaders, including US President Joe Biden and National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, who have expressed concerns about potential escalation in South and Central Asia. China, through Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, has proposed mediation between Pakistan and Iran, urging calm and restraint.

In conclusion, the intensifying conflict between Pakistan and Iran has raised concerns within the international community. The potential of these strikes and counterstrikes, coupled with the broader regional conflict, to destabilize an already volatile region is high. It is crucial for diplomatic channels to be utilized to deescalate the situation and restore regional peace. The world watches in hope that restraint and diplomacy will triumph over aggression and conflict.

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As the tension escalates between Ukraine and Russia, the world is uniting behind Ukraine. A recent discussion between US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz underscored the significance of financial, humanitarian, and military support to Ukraine. Germany has pledged over €7 billion in military hardware to Ukraine for 2024, while France is set to supply around 40 SCALP long-range cruise missiles and hundreds of bombs.

Britain is also stepping up its support with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiling a new aid package for Ukraine, which includes a £2.5 billion increase in military funding. This bolsters Britain's standing as the second-largest donor of military aid to Ukraine, following the U.S., with a total contribution of £4.6 billion pounds in 2022 and 2023.

However, there are potential hurdles to these international efforts. In the U.S., a budget dispute with hard-right Republicans could potentially reduce Ukraine aid. Currently, Republican hardliners are holding up €61 billion in "critical" aid, suggesting instead that the funds should be used for a wall on the U.S.'s southern border with Mexico and for reforming U.S. immigration laws.

Despite receiving international support, Ukraine's counteroffensive in the ongoing war with Russia, which commenced with a full-scale invasion by Moscow on February 24, 2022, has not yet achieved a significant military breakthrough. Ukraine's strategic aim is to regain its 1991 borders, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

In the midst of the conflict, Ukraine is striving to garner support for its 10-point peace plan from countries in the Global South. However, a meeting of national security advisers ended in Davos without a clear strategy moving forward. Ukraine remains eager to hold a leader-level meeting, but the schedule is yet to be set.

As the conflict enters its third year on February 24, Ukraine is persistently seeking additional support from its Western allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been actively courting new pledges, with recent visits to Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, countries that have vowed to supply more missiles, drones, howitzers, and artillery shells.

Ukraine's needs, however, extend beyond weaponry. The country urgently requires air defense systems to counter Russian aerial attacks. From December 29 to January 2, over 500 drones and missiles were launched by Russia, exhausting Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.

The conflict has also sparked an alarming arms race, with both Ukraine and Russia endeavoring to restock their arsenals in preparation for potential major ground offensives in 2025. Ukraine alleges that Russia is receiving artillery shells and missiles from North Korea and drones from Iran.

The bravery and resilience of the Ukrainian people amidst these challenging times continue to motivate global leaders. France's recently appointed foreign minister, Stephane Sejourne, commended the Ukrainian people during his inaugural foreign trip to Kyiv.

The international community's backing for Ukraine signifies more than just diplomatic support; it stands as a testament to the global commitment to peace and justice. Despite the hurdles and uncertainties, the world continues to unite behind Ukraine, reinforcing the principle that no nation should stand alone when facing aggression. As this saga continues to unfold, the world remains vigilant, hoping for a peaceful resolution.

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In a landmark third consecutive victory, Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) celebrated a win last Saturday. Vice President Lai Ching-te, with Hsiao Bi-khim, the country's recent top envoy to the United States as his Vice President, ascended to the presidency. Winning just over 40% of the total votes, the election result was a clear indication of the public's view on Taiwan's sovereignty and its relationship with China.

The election saw a turnout of just over 71%, with over 14 million people casting their votes. The opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), garnered 33.49% and 26.45% of the votes respectively. The election served as a platform to debate livelihood issues and strategies to handle an increasingly assertive China under Xi Jinping's leadership.

The DPP's victory highlighted the voters' support for Taiwan's sovereignty and underscored the need for stronger defenses against China's threats and deeper relations with democratic countries. This contrasts with China's Taiwan Affairs Office's claim that the election result does not represent the island's mainstream view, as China has always seen Taiwan as part of its territory, despite never having controlled it.

The DPP's triumph occurs amidst the United States' efforts to stabilize relations with China. Taiwan had previously fortified its ties with the U.S., leading to increased support and arms sales to the island. Following the election, the Biden administration plans to dispatch an unofficial delegation to Taipei.

China could potentially escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan in response to the election result, according to analysts. However, Taiwan's security officials do not anticipate immediate large-scale military actions from China.

Economic issues such as low wages and housing remain major concerns for Taiwan's younger voters. The DPP, in power for eight years, faces criticism for not improving living conditions, with issues such as rising house prices, stagnant incomes, significant youth unemployment, and a modest annual GDP growth of around 2%. However, some young Taiwanese, like 32-year-old Ziwei, remain optimistic about their future. The DPP has pledged to address these economic concerns by building more affordable housing, raising the minimum wage, and investing in skills development for younger workers.

Meanwhile, Xi Jinping, China's leader, has recently advocated for strengthening Beijing's sovereignty claim over the Senkaku Islands, which have never been controlled by China or Taiwan. Despite this, China has initiated drilling around the islands, ignoring the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This has led to suggestions that Japan should bolster its defenses on the islands, which it nationalized in September 2012.

In conclusion, the recent election in Taiwan and China's assertiveness over the Senkaku Islands highlight the ongoing tensions in East Asia. As Taiwan asserts its sovereignty and China expands its territorial claims, the world watches with bated breath. The future will reveal whether Taiwan maintains its stand against China's assertiveness.

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