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News That Matters

19/12/2023 ---- 08/01/2024

The bitter winter in Ukraine and Russia has been further intensified by the escalating aerial warfare. The conflict, marked by long-range strikes and ground battles at a standstill, takes a new terrifying turn as the skies above become the latest battlefield.

On Thursday, Moscow reported intercepting Ukrainian missiles over Crimea and Belgorod, a Russian border city, resulting in one person wounded in Sevopol and over 100 people evacuated from their homes due to unexploded shells. Two men also sustained shrapnel injuries in Belgorod, signaling the conflict's encroachment onto Russian soil.

The conflict took a deadly turn on Saturday when 25 people, including five children, were killed in a city on the Ukrainian border. This marks one of the most significant attacks on Russian soil since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Due to the escalating violence, traffic was suspended on the bridge connecting Crimea, an essential supply link for Russia, which was seized a decade ago.

The conflict has seen attacks from both sides. Russia reportedly launched two S-300 missiles at Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. The US claimed on Thursday that Moscow has used North Korean missiles to attack Ukraine and is seeking more from Iran, based on recently declassified intelligence. These missiles were reportedly fired into Ukraine on 30 December, adding a new dimension to the conflict.

Responding to these developments, Ukraine has urged its Western allies to continue supplying air defense weapons. With a NATO-Ukraine ambassadors' meeting scheduled for 10 January in Brussels, Ukraine's defense needs will be a key discussion point. The NATO allies have already provided a broad range of air defense systems to Ukraine and are committed to further strengthening its defenses.

In the meantime, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's peace plan talks are set for 14 January in Switzerland. The Ukrainian government is also working towards the release of more soldiers imprisoned by Russia, with over 2,800 Ukrainians already freed, but more than 4,000 remain captive.

Amid the escalating conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expediting the citizenship process for foreign fighters serving in the Russian military, requiring only a one-year enlistment to acquire a Russian passport. This bypasses residency and language requirements and underscores the desperate measures being taken.

The conflict showed no signs of easing as the New Year began. Russia launched heavy missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, killing at least 32 people on 29 December. In retaliation, Ukraine shelled Donetsk, a Russia-held Ukrainian city, on New Year's Eve, leading to at least four deaths and 13 injuries.

With daily attacks, the conflict has reached a fever pitch. Belgorod, a Russian city, has been particularly hard hit, with the death toll escalating to 25, including five children. In retaliation, Ukraine has launched a series of strikes on targets in south-west Russia, escalating the conflict further.

As the world watches the high stakes in the sky over Ukraine and Russia, the devastating cost of war becomes increasingly apparent. Each day brings fresh horrors and a stark reminder of the human cost of war. The hope for a swift and peaceful resolution remains, but for now, the skies over Ukraine and Russia are a terrifying battlefield.

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The 60th US presidential election in 2024 is poised to be a riveting face-off between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Biden, at 81, has a record of significant accomplishments such as the creation of 14 million jobs, robust GDP growth, and four major legislative victories on coronavirus relief, infrastructure, domestic production of computer chips, and climate action. However, his approval ratings have been marred by the fallout from the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal and his support of Israel during the Gaza conflict, causing discontent among younger voters.

Meanwhile, Trump, who is currently facing 91 criminal charges across four jurisdictions, is expected to punctuate his campaign with court appearances. His previous term, marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, culminated in a defeat by Biden in the 2020 election. Despite the challenges, Trump is preparing for what he calls "the final battle", even as he faces competition from Republican contenders such as Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

The political climate is fraught with conspiracy theories, polarization, gun violence, and rising antisemitism and Islamophobia. Concerns are also mounting about the influence of social media platforms, particularly platform X, formerly Twitter, now owned by Elon Musk. The platform, known for extremist content, is making this election the first "AI election" where deepfakes could potentially exacerbate the spread of disinformation.

In a significant development, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump cannot run for president in the state in 2024 due to a constitutional insurrection clause. Although the ruling only applies to Colorado, Trump's campaign plans to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

The political landscape is fluid, with Biden recently suggesting that he is not the only Democrat capable of defeating Trump. This statement has sparked speculation about potential shifts within the Democratic party, with figures like Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer emerging as potential contenders.

The 2024 presidential election is set against a backdrop of intense polarization and high stakes. The outcome will shape the future of the United States, making every vote more crucial than ever. As democracy faces these testing times, the battle for the presidency is a gripping spectacle, underscoring the resilience of the American democratic system.

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The year 2023 was a whirlwind in the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape, characterized by numerous product launches, setbacks, and strides towards regulation. AI giants Meta, Google, Baidu, OpenAI, and the French open-source contender, Mistral, all launched new AI applications. However, none of these became an immediate success, illustrating the complex nature of AI development.

AI-powered search engines from Microsoft and Google fell short of expectations, revealing fundamental flaws in language models, the backbone of AI applications. Microsoft’s Bing was embroiled in controversy for suggesting conspiracy theories, while Google’s Bard was found to generate incorrect answers, leading to a significant $100 billion loss in Google's share price.

The darker aspects of AI also came to the fore in 2023. Generative AI models exhibited severe gender, ethnic, and political biases. The environmental impact of AI was also highlighted, with research showing that generating an image using a powerful AI model consumes as much energy as fully charging a smartphone.

Despite these challenges, significant progress was made. OpenAI and Google started allowing companies and developers to create customized AI chatbots and build applications using AI. Google DeepMind utilized a large language model to solve a long-standing scientific problem, and a new open-source system, Dobb-E, was developed to teach robots simple household tasks.

The potential risks associated with AI sparked a heated debate among scientists, business leaders, and policymakers. While some expressed grave concerns, others, including Yann LeCun, Joelle Pineau, and Joy Buolamwini, dismissed these fears as distractions from the current issues caused by AI.

AI policy and regulation took center stage in the US Senate and the G7. In December, European lawmakers passed the AI Act, introducing binding rules for the development of high-risk AI. The White House introduced an executive order on AI and received voluntary commitments from leading AI companies for more transparency and standards. A proposal for watermarks in AI-generated content also gained traction.

The year saw a record number of lawsuits filed by artists and writers against AI companies for scraping their intellectual property without consent or compensation. OpenAI's superalignment team, led by Ilya Sutskever, focused on preventing a superintelligence from going rogue.

In response to an increase in copyright disputes related to AI, there was a call to designate 2024 as the Year of AI Regulation in the U.S., emphasizing the need for comprehensive accountability by governing bodies.

Looking ahead to 2024, AI regulation, especially the impact of generative AI on privacy, securities, and antitrust laws, will be a dominant topic. While there is an expectation for incremental regulatory steps as new AI applications emerge, concerns remain that premature regulation could slow progress in AI development.

Different countries have different approaches to AI regulation. The US, UK, EU, and China are all trying to strike a balance between innovation and regulation. The Biden administration released an executive order promoting safe and secure AI development, while the EU's proposed AI Act classifies AI applications into four risk categories. China requires companies to undergo security assessments and receive clearance before releasing AI products to the public.

Despite progress in generative AI, artificial general intelligence remains a distant goal. Generative AI's ability to generate text and images presents both significant benefits and challenges, such as the production of false information.

As we move into 2024, the hope is for a balanced regulation that mitigates potential harm without overly restricting beneficial technology. The need for independent regulation of AI safety and public release of AI systems has been underscored by the upheaval at OpenAI. The journey on the AI rollercoaster is just beginning, and the destination is yet to be determined.

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The global political landscape is experiencing a period of increased tension due to a series of significant events. One such event is the approval of a $250m military aid package by the White House to support Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict. The package includes air defense, artillery, small arms ammunition, and anti-tank weapons. However, this is the last tranche of the funding available without new Congressional approval, which is currently stalled. The delay in further funding, coupled with Ukraine's $43bn budget deficit, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the country's war effort and its public finances.

The stalemate in Congress is due to Republican lawmakers blocking further arms deals unless tougher security measures are implemented on the US-Mexico border. This impasse resulted in the defeat of an emergency spending measure earlier this month that would have provided $50bn for Ukraine and $14bn for Israel. Despite a subsequent visit from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the lawmakers remained steadfast in their position.

Meanwhile, Sweden's NATO membership has been approved by the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee after months of delay due to opposition from Turkey and Hungary. This approval sets the stage for a vote by the full parliament where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling alliance holds a majority. However, the proposed $20bn F-16 sale to Turkey is facing hurdles due to concerns about the country's alleged human rights violations and its strained relations with Greece.

In Serbia, the ruling SNS party's recent electoral victory has been marred by accusations of election rigging, leading to violent protests and numerous arrests. Despite the allegations, the Serbian Progressive Party maintains the legitimacy of the election results, even as international observers have pointed out various irregularities.

Adding to the tension, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is considering mobilizing an additional 450,000-500,000 Ukrainians into the armed forces. This comes as Russia plans to increase its army to 1.5 million service members, raising the potential for conflict in the region.

In response to these developments, ten countries, including Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the UK, and the US, have launched the Tallinn Mechanism to aid Ukraine against Russian cyber attacks. The UK and Germany have already pledged millions to strengthen Ukraine's cyber defenses.

In conclusion, the international relations landscape is undergoing dynamic changes with each event and decision carrying far-reaching implications. As the world closely monitors the unfolding events – the pending aid to Ukraine, Sweden's potential NATO membership, and Serbia's election protests – the next move in this global chess game is eagerly anticipated.

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Amid escalating Chinese pressure, Taiwan's sovereignty is increasingly under scrutiny. Veteran Hsu Keng-Jui and a network of volunteers vigilantly monitor Chinese ships and aircraft near Taiwan's territorial limit. China, viewing Taiwan as a rebellious province, has been regularly crossing the median line that separates the two territories. In September alone, over 100 aircraft from the People's Liberation Army were directed towards Taiwan, with 40 breaching the median line.

This tactic is part of China's "grey zone warfare"—a strategic move designed to subdue Taiwan's government, its separatist supporters, and foreign allies like the US and Japan without resorting to actual combat. The message is unambiguous: China is asserting its dominance.

As Taiwan's presidential election, scheduled for 13 January, approaches, the political climate is charged. Outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, a staunch defender of Taiwan's sovereignty, is stepping down after serving for eight years. Vice-President William Lai, viewed by China as a hardline separatist, is vying to replace her. Beijing's propaganda insinuates that electing Lai could precipitate conflict, a scare tactic to influence the election's outcome.

Despite this, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintains a strong following, demonstrated by a recent rally that attracted around 60,000 supporters. President Tsai's support for the LGBT community and legalization of same-sex marriage distinguish her from China. However, issues such as rising costs, unaffordable housing, and dwindling opportunities are driving young voters towards the Taiwan People's Party and its populist candidate Ko Wen-je.

In response to China's relentless pressure, the DPP government has invested in new submarines, acquired more F16 fighter jets and missiles from the US, and reintroduced a 12-month compulsory military service. However, the KMT's vice-presidential candidate, Jaw Shaw Kong, criticizes the submarine program as wasteful and advocates dialogue with Beijing to achieve peace.

Taiwan's air force, with fewer than 300 fighter jets, many of which are over 25 years old, is feeling the strain. Polls suggest a narrow victory for Lai and the DPP in January, potentially leading to an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term.

China's propaganda targets both Taiwan's older population and young voters through platforms like TikTok and YouTube, aiming to sway perceptions towards anti-independence sentiments. Beijing's ultimate objective is to have Taiwan sign a peace agreement without resorting to warfare.

Tensions are also escalating in the South China Sea, with recent incidents involving Chinese ships and Philippine boats. Despite Chinese diplomat Wang Yi blaming the Philippines for provoking trouble at sea, President Ferdinand Marcos remains resolute in not relinquishing "a single square inch of our territory".

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his intention to reunify Taiwan with mainland China to President Joe Biden during a recent summit in San Francisco. Xi prefers peaceful reunification, but the timing remains uncertain. This warning is significant given China's increasing aggression towards Taiwan and the forthcoming presidential election.

In this intricate geopolitical landscape, Taiwan's struggle for sovereignty persists. The outcome of the impending election could shift the balance in a region already laden with tension. As Taiwan stands on the brink of change, the world watches attentively.

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The protracted conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to exacerbate a severe humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip. The death toll has reached over 20,600 Palestinians, and nearly all of Gaza's 2.3 million residents have been displaced. An Egyptian peace proposal, developed in collaboration with Qatar, has yet to gain traction from either party.

The proposed resolution involves a phased hostage release and the establishment of a Palestinian government to oversee the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank. However, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has refrained from commenting directly on the proposal, indicating a resolve to persist with Israel's offensive.

The humanitarian conditions in Gaza are deteriorating. According to a UN food security agency, around 500,000 people, or a quarter of households, are grappling with "catastrophic conditions". The entire population, approximately 2.2 million people, is facing acute food shortages. The World Health Organization's Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has voiced concerns over the escalating patient load at Al-Aqsa Hospital, following one of Israel’s deadliest air strikes.

In response to the crisis, the UN Security Council passed a resolution to implement "extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip". However, the resolution stopped short of demanding an immediate ceasefire. It also calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, a contentious point in ongoing negotiations. Despite this, only 10% of the required food is currently reaching Gaza, states the World Food Programme.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, Hamas authorities allege that Israel attacked the Rafah crossing, resulting in four deaths, including the director of the recently reopened Kerem Shalom crossing. This incident has impeded talks for a new ceasefire in Egypt, with Hamas declining to agree to a partial hostage release in exchange for a partial ceasefire.

Journalists covering the conflict, like Al Jazeera's Samer Abudaqa, have also lost their lives. The Israeli army has justified attacks on civilian infrastructure, including United Nations-run schools and hospitals, to target Hamas fighters. This has led to a significant number of civilian casualties.

The crisis has been further intensified by Israel's enforcement of a "full" blockade on Gaza following the October 7 attacks, severely limiting access to food, water, electricity, and fuel. Though some aid was allowed through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in early November, aid groups maintain that it is insufficient. On December 17, Israel reopened the southern Kerem Shalom border crossing for aid trucks, pledging to transfer "200 truckloads per day of food and humanitarian aid".

A vote on a sustainable cessation of hostilities in Gaza by the United Nations Security Council was deferred due to US objections to the draft resolution's wording. The US expressed its inability to support a reference to a “cessation of hostilities”, but indicated potential acceptance of a “suspension of hostilities”. The latest draft by the United Arab Emirates condemns all acts of terrorism and demands the unconditional release of all hostages.

The crisis has exposed rifts between the United States and Israel. President Joe Biden warned that Israel was losing international support for its campaign against Hamas and criticized Israel’s hardline government, referring to it as the “most conservative government in Israel’s history.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected American plans for post-war Gaza, suggesting a role for “some kind of civilian Palestinian authority.”

The escalating conflict and humanitarian crisis demand urgent global attention. The cost of inaction is measured in human lives, and the situation in Gaza is a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of war and the pressing need for peace.

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The year 2023 was a tumultuous one for Africa, marked by political instability, economic turmoil, and severe climate-related disasters. The continent was swept up in geopolitical drama, with new conflicts surfacing, and flawed elections sparking military coups. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, together with the war in Ukraine, further disrupted supply chains across the continent.

The Horn of Africa was particularly affected by climate disasters, enduring its third consecutive year and sixth season of failed rainfall. According to World Health Organization data from August, this severe drought displaced 2.3 million people. Subsequent floods resulted in 80 fatalities across Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan, and displaced thousands more. Adding to the climate woes, cyclones in Malawi and Mozambique led to hundreds of deaths and further displacement.

African leaders, in response to these crises, held the first-ever African climate summit in Nairobi. They demanded that Western countries contribute more towards climate taxes. This stance was echoed at COP28 by African negotiators, who called for a just and equitable fossil phase-out, as per Lerato Ngakane, communications director at the Global Oil and Gas Network.

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with disruptions to the global food supply chain due to the Russia-Ukraine war, heightened the cost-of-living crisis. This sparked protests in countries such as Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia. In Malawi, the president suspended official travel to conserve foreign reserves, while Nigeria experienced a surge in fuel prices due to the sudden termination of a longstanding fuel subsidy and the devaluation of the naira.

Political instability was prevalent, with military coups taking place in Niger and Gabon, and unsuccessful coup attempts in Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau. Election disputes occurred in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Eswatini, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and Madagascar, with Liberia being a notable exception, experiencing a peaceful transition.

Conflict escalated in several regions. The Sudanese Armed Forces clashed with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, resulting in over 10,000 deaths and mass displacement. Violence also intensified in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while in Ethiopia, a fallout between the federal government and Fano militias in the Amhara region triggered heavy fighting.

Despite these challenges, there were positive developments. The BRICS bloc expanded to include Egypt and Ethiopia, with South Africa hosting the 15th summit. Although France's influence in its former colonies waned following coups in Gabon and Niger, Russia's influence in Africa increased, despite the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a key figure in Russian diplomacy in Africa.

In a move to stimulate trade and revenue, several African nations relaxed visa requirements. Mozambique waived visas for 29 countries, Rwanda abolished visas for all Africans, and Kenya signed a 90-day visa waiver agreement with South Africa.

In summary, while 2023 presented Africa with significant challenges from climate disasters, political upheaval, and economic crises, there were also considerable advances in international cooperation and policy changes aimed at fostering growth and stability. The resilience and determination of African nations will undoubtedly continue to influence the continent's future trajectory.

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The landscape of global power is in constant flux, with recent developments in US-China relations and China's escalating global influence being particularly significant. In November, US President Joe Biden disclosed that he and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, had agreed to reestablish direct communication lines between their respective military commanders. Announced on November 16th at a news conference, this agreement was hailed as a significant breakthrough, hinting at a possible détente in the icy relations between the two superpowers.

Despite this positive development, the situation remains complex. Despite multiple attempts by US defense officials to initiate communication, no responses have been received from their Chinese counterparts, sparking concerns about potential misunderstandings and mishaps arising from this communication gap. The situation is further complicated by the recent dismissal of China's defense minister, Li Shangfu, in October, with no successor announced yet. Regardless of these hurdles, US officials remain optimistic about the possibility of maritime safety talks in the coming year.

The strained relations between the US and China aren't confined to military communications. Chinese media has lambasted the US for its ongoing arms sales to Taiwan, arguing that it erodes mutual trust and impedes the recovery of military relations. In retaliation, a Defense Department spokesperson underscored the importance of military communication with China, asserting that open lines of communication are crucial to prevent competition from escalating into conflict.

Simultaneously, China is stepping up its diplomatic engagement with the European Union (EU). The first face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and EU leaders in four years recently took place in Beijing, addressing a range of contentious issues, including human rights, Beijing's ties with Russia, and China's claim over Taiwan. Despite disagreements over trade and differing views on the Ukraine war, both sides expressed a desire for reduced trade barriers and enhanced cooperation.

China's growing global influence isn't limited to diplomatic interactions. Chinese warships recently docked at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base for the first time, signaling a significant expansion in China's overseas military presence. This move has elicited concerns from the United States, which interprets it as a part of China's wider strategy to disrupt the US's global military operations.

Cambodian officials have dismissed these concerns, asserting that the facility would not be used as a Chinese naval base. Chinese officials have similarly downplayed the move, referring to the base as an “aid project” aimed at bolstering Cambodia’s navy. Nevertheless, the US Defense Department's assessment of China's involvement in the refurbishment of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base has evolved over the past year, suggesting the potential for the People's Liberation Army to gain access to parts of the base.

As these events unfold, it's evident that the shifting dynamics of global power are presenting new challenges and opportunities. The US, China, and the rest of the world must carefully navigate these complex currents. The decisions made today will undeniably shape the world of tomorrow. The importance of open communication and mutual respect in international relations is paramount. Only through dialogue and understanding can we hope to prevent competition from escalating into conflict, ensuring a peaceful future for all.

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The Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, has emerged as the newest geopolitical hotspot due to persistent attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthi group based in Yemen. In response, the US and its allies are considering the establishment of a multinational task force to ensure safe passage in this region, which sees over six million barrels of oil pass through daily, primarily to Europe.

US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, confirmed that discussions are ongoing with other nations to form a "maritime task force". The proposed 12-nation coalition would include warships from the US, France, the UK, and Israel, potentially increasing the number of warships and enabling attacks on Houthi targets within Yemen.

The Houthis have been targeting vessels in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the world's third-largest choke point for oil shipments. Their retaliation to Israel's bombardment of Gaza escalated with the capture of the Galaxy Leader in November, and subsequent rocket and drone attacks on commercial and naval vessels. This has prompted an increased presence of American and French navies in the Red Sea to safeguard against Houthi attacks.

The Houthi group's history of attacking Red Sea vessels, including the Al Madinah frigate in 2017 and two Saudi oil tankers in 2018, has led the US to contemplate designating the group as a "terror organization". The recent attacks have caused significant disruptions, including fires on the Liberia-flagged vessels Al-Jasrah and MSC Palatium III. Consequently, shipping companies Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all journeys through the Red Sea.

The Houthis, who have claimed responsibility for firing missiles at two ships, have stated their intent to target any ship travelling to Israel, irrespective of its nationality. This is viewed as a pressure tactic against Israel during its offensive on Gaza, which has resulted in over 18,700 fatalities in the two-month-old war against Hamas.

The escalating situation has also led to a surge in insurance costs for ships transiting the area, with increases amounting to tens of thousands of dollars for larger vessels like oil tankers. The rebels have attempted to hijack and capture several ships, succeeding at least once in November, and typically order them to surrender and head to a Yemeni port, opening fire if they do not comply.

As the tensions continue to rise, US, French, and British warships patrol the area, shooting several missiles out of the sky. While the Houthis are the ones pulling the trigger, as Sullivan puts it, they're being handed the gun by Iran. As the world watches this evolving situation, it's clear that the Red Sea has become a high-stakes geopolitical chessboard.

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