NUNZIUM

News That Matters

28/12/2023 ---- 02/01/2024

The year 2023 was a whirlwind in the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape, characterized by numerous product launches, setbacks, and strides towards regulation. AI giants Meta, Google, Baidu, OpenAI, and the French open-source contender, Mistral, all launched new AI applications. However, none of these became an immediate success, illustrating the complex nature of AI development.

AI-powered search engines from Microsoft and Google fell short of expectations, revealing fundamental flaws in language models, the backbone of AI applications. Microsoft’s Bing was embroiled in controversy for suggesting conspiracy theories, while Google’s Bard was found to generate incorrect answers, leading to a significant $100 billion loss in Google's share price.

The darker aspects of AI also came to the fore in 2023. Generative AI models exhibited severe gender, ethnic, and political biases. The environmental impact of AI was also highlighted, with research showing that generating an image using a powerful AI model consumes as much energy as fully charging a smartphone.

Despite these challenges, significant progress was made. OpenAI and Google started allowing companies and developers to create customized AI chatbots and build applications using AI. Google DeepMind utilized a large language model to solve a long-standing scientific problem, and a new open-source system, Dobb-E, was developed to teach robots simple household tasks.

The potential risks associated with AI sparked a heated debate among scientists, business leaders, and policymakers. While some expressed grave concerns, others, including Yann LeCun, Joelle Pineau, and Joy Buolamwini, dismissed these fears as distractions from the current issues caused by AI.

AI policy and regulation took center stage in the US Senate and the G7. In December, European lawmakers passed the AI Act, introducing binding rules for the development of high-risk AI. The White House introduced an executive order on AI and received voluntary commitments from leading AI companies for more transparency and standards. A proposal for watermarks in AI-generated content also gained traction.

The year saw a record number of lawsuits filed by artists and writers against AI companies for scraping their intellectual property without consent or compensation. OpenAI's superalignment team, led by Ilya Sutskever, focused on preventing a superintelligence from going rogue.

In response to an increase in copyright disputes related to AI, there was a call to designate 2024 as the Year of AI Regulation in the U.S., emphasizing the need for comprehensive accountability by governing bodies.

Looking ahead to 2024, AI regulation, especially the impact of generative AI on privacy, securities, and antitrust laws, will be a dominant topic. While there is an expectation for incremental regulatory steps as new AI applications emerge, concerns remain that premature regulation could slow progress in AI development.

Different countries have different approaches to AI regulation. The US, UK, EU, and China are all trying to strike a balance between innovation and regulation. The Biden administration released an executive order promoting safe and secure AI development, while the EU's proposed AI Act classifies AI applications into four risk categories. China requires companies to undergo security assessments and receive clearance before releasing AI products to the public.

Despite progress in generative AI, artificial general intelligence remains a distant goal. Generative AI's ability to generate text and images presents both significant benefits and challenges, such as the production of false information.

As we move into 2024, the hope is for a balanced regulation that mitigates potential harm without overly restricting beneficial technology. The need for independent regulation of AI safety and public release of AI systems has been underscored by the upheaval at OpenAI. The journey on the AI rollercoaster is just beginning, and the destination is yet to be determined.

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The global political landscape is experiencing a period of increased tension due to a series of significant events. One such event is the approval of a $250m military aid package by the White House to support Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict. The package includes air defense, artillery, small arms ammunition, and anti-tank weapons. However, this is the last tranche of the funding available without new Congressional approval, which is currently stalled. The delay in further funding, coupled with Ukraine's $43bn budget deficit, has raised concerns about the sustainability of the country's war effort and its public finances.

The stalemate in Congress is due to Republican lawmakers blocking further arms deals unless tougher security measures are implemented on the US-Mexico border. This impasse resulted in the defeat of an emergency spending measure earlier this month that would have provided $50bn for Ukraine and $14bn for Israel. Despite a subsequent visit from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the lawmakers remained steadfast in their position.

Meanwhile, Sweden's NATO membership has been approved by the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee after months of delay due to opposition from Turkey and Hungary. This approval sets the stage for a vote by the full parliament where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling alliance holds a majority. However, the proposed $20bn F-16 sale to Turkey is facing hurdles due to concerns about the country's alleged human rights violations and its strained relations with Greece.

In Serbia, the ruling SNS party's recent electoral victory has been marred by accusations of election rigging, leading to violent protests and numerous arrests. Despite the allegations, the Serbian Progressive Party maintains the legitimacy of the election results, even as international observers have pointed out various irregularities.

Adding to the tension, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is considering mobilizing an additional 450,000-500,000 Ukrainians into the armed forces. This comes as Russia plans to increase its army to 1.5 million service members, raising the potential for conflict in the region.

In response to these developments, ten countries, including Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the UK, and the US, have launched the Tallinn Mechanism to aid Ukraine against Russian cyber attacks. The UK and Germany have already pledged millions to strengthen Ukraine's cyber defenses.

In conclusion, the international relations landscape is undergoing dynamic changes with each event and decision carrying far-reaching implications. As the world closely monitors the unfolding events – the pending aid to Ukraine, Sweden's potential NATO membership, and Serbia's election protests – the next move in this global chess game is eagerly anticipated.

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Amid escalating Chinese pressure, Taiwan's sovereignty is increasingly under scrutiny. Veteran Hsu Keng-Jui and a network of volunteers vigilantly monitor Chinese ships and aircraft near Taiwan's territorial limit. China, viewing Taiwan as a rebellious province, has been regularly crossing the median line that separates the two territories. In September alone, over 100 aircraft from the People's Liberation Army were directed towards Taiwan, with 40 breaching the median line.

This tactic is part of China's "grey zone warfare"—a strategic move designed to subdue Taiwan's government, its separatist supporters, and foreign allies like the US and Japan without resorting to actual combat. The message is unambiguous: China is asserting its dominance.

As Taiwan's presidential election, scheduled for 13 January, approaches, the political climate is charged. Outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, a staunch defender of Taiwan's sovereignty, is stepping down after serving for eight years. Vice-President William Lai, viewed by China as a hardline separatist, is vying to replace her. Beijing's propaganda insinuates that electing Lai could precipitate conflict, a scare tactic to influence the election's outcome.

Despite this, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintains a strong following, demonstrated by a recent rally that attracted around 60,000 supporters. President Tsai's support for the LGBT community and legalization of same-sex marriage distinguish her from China. However, issues such as rising costs, unaffordable housing, and dwindling opportunities are driving young voters towards the Taiwan People's Party and its populist candidate Ko Wen-je.

In response to China's relentless pressure, the DPP government has invested in new submarines, acquired more F16 fighter jets and missiles from the US, and reintroduced a 12-month compulsory military service. However, the KMT's vice-presidential candidate, Jaw Shaw Kong, criticizes the submarine program as wasteful and advocates dialogue with Beijing to achieve peace.

Taiwan's air force, with fewer than 300 fighter jets, many of which are over 25 years old, is feeling the strain. Polls suggest a narrow victory for Lai and the DPP in January, potentially leading to an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term.

China's propaganda targets both Taiwan's older population and young voters through platforms like TikTok and YouTube, aiming to sway perceptions towards anti-independence sentiments. Beijing's ultimate objective is to have Taiwan sign a peace agreement without resorting to warfare.

Tensions are also escalating in the South China Sea, with recent incidents involving Chinese ships and Philippine boats. Despite Chinese diplomat Wang Yi blaming the Philippines for provoking trouble at sea, President Ferdinand Marcos remains resolute in not relinquishing "a single square inch of our territory".

Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his intention to reunify Taiwan with mainland China to President Joe Biden during a recent summit in San Francisco. Xi prefers peaceful reunification, but the timing remains uncertain. This warning is significant given China's increasing aggression towards Taiwan and the forthcoming presidential election.

In this intricate geopolitical landscape, Taiwan's struggle for sovereignty persists. The outcome of the impending election could shift the balance in a region already laden with tension. As Taiwan stands on the brink of change, the world watches attentively.

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