NUNZIUM

News That Matters

19/12/2023 ---- 22/12/2023

The year 2023 was a tumultuous one for Africa, marked by political instability, economic turmoil, and severe climate-related disasters. The continent was swept up in geopolitical drama, with new conflicts surfacing, and flawed elections sparking military coups. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, together with the war in Ukraine, further disrupted supply chains across the continent.

The Horn of Africa was particularly affected by climate disasters, enduring its third consecutive year and sixth season of failed rainfall. According to World Health Organization data from August, this severe drought displaced 2.3 million people. Subsequent floods resulted in 80 fatalities across Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan, and displaced thousands more. Adding to the climate woes, cyclones in Malawi and Mozambique led to hundreds of deaths and further displacement.

African leaders, in response to these crises, held the first-ever African climate summit in Nairobi. They demanded that Western countries contribute more towards climate taxes. This stance was echoed at COP28 by African negotiators, who called for a just and equitable fossil phase-out, as per Lerato Ngakane, communications director at the Global Oil and Gas Network.

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with disruptions to the global food supply chain due to the Russia-Ukraine war, heightened the cost-of-living crisis. This sparked protests in countries such as Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia. In Malawi, the president suspended official travel to conserve foreign reserves, while Nigeria experienced a surge in fuel prices due to the sudden termination of a longstanding fuel subsidy and the devaluation of the naira.

Political instability was prevalent, with military coups taking place in Niger and Gabon, and unsuccessful coup attempts in Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau. Election disputes occurred in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Eswatini, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and Madagascar, with Liberia being a notable exception, experiencing a peaceful transition.

Conflict escalated in several regions. The Sudanese Armed Forces clashed with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, resulting in over 10,000 deaths and mass displacement. Violence also intensified in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while in Ethiopia, a fallout between the federal government and Fano militias in the Amhara region triggered heavy fighting.

Despite these challenges, there were positive developments. The BRICS bloc expanded to include Egypt and Ethiopia, with South Africa hosting the 15th summit. Although France's influence in its former colonies waned following coups in Gabon and Niger, Russia's influence in Africa increased, despite the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a key figure in Russian diplomacy in Africa.

In a move to stimulate trade and revenue, several African nations relaxed visa requirements. Mozambique waived visas for 29 countries, Rwanda abolished visas for all Africans, and Kenya signed a 90-day visa waiver agreement with South Africa.

In summary, while 2023 presented Africa with significant challenges from climate disasters, political upheaval, and economic crises, there were also considerable advances in international cooperation and policy changes aimed at fostering growth and stability. The resilience and determination of African nations will undoubtedly continue to influence the continent's future trajectory.

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The landscape of global power is in constant flux, with recent developments in US-China relations and China's escalating global influence being particularly significant. In November, US President Joe Biden disclosed that he and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, had agreed to reestablish direct communication lines between their respective military commanders. Announced on November 16th at a news conference, this agreement was hailed as a significant breakthrough, hinting at a possible détente in the icy relations between the two superpowers.

Despite this positive development, the situation remains complex. Despite multiple attempts by US defense officials to initiate communication, no responses have been received from their Chinese counterparts, sparking concerns about potential misunderstandings and mishaps arising from this communication gap. The situation is further complicated by the recent dismissal of China's defense minister, Li Shangfu, in October, with no successor announced yet. Regardless of these hurdles, US officials remain optimistic about the possibility of maritime safety talks in the coming year.

The strained relations between the US and China aren't confined to military communications. Chinese media has lambasted the US for its ongoing arms sales to Taiwan, arguing that it erodes mutual trust and impedes the recovery of military relations. In retaliation, a Defense Department spokesperson underscored the importance of military communication with China, asserting that open lines of communication are crucial to prevent competition from escalating into conflict.

Simultaneously, China is stepping up its diplomatic engagement with the European Union (EU). The first face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and EU leaders in four years recently took place in Beijing, addressing a range of contentious issues, including human rights, Beijing's ties with Russia, and China's claim over Taiwan. Despite disagreements over trade and differing views on the Ukraine war, both sides expressed a desire for reduced trade barriers and enhanced cooperation.

China's growing global influence isn't limited to diplomatic interactions. Chinese warships recently docked at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base for the first time, signaling a significant expansion in China's overseas military presence. This move has elicited concerns from the United States, which interprets it as a part of China's wider strategy to disrupt the US's global military operations.

Cambodian officials have dismissed these concerns, asserting that the facility would not be used as a Chinese naval base. Chinese officials have similarly downplayed the move, referring to the base as an “aid project” aimed at bolstering Cambodia’s navy. Nevertheless, the US Defense Department's assessment of China's involvement in the refurbishment of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base has evolved over the past year, suggesting the potential for the People's Liberation Army to gain access to parts of the base.

As these events unfold, it's evident that the shifting dynamics of global power are presenting new challenges and opportunities. The US, China, and the rest of the world must carefully navigate these complex currents. The decisions made today will undeniably shape the world of tomorrow. The importance of open communication and mutual respect in international relations is paramount. Only through dialogue and understanding can we hope to prevent competition from escalating into conflict, ensuring a peaceful future for all.

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The Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, has emerged as the newest geopolitical hotspot due to persistent attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthi group based in Yemen. In response, the US and its allies are considering the establishment of a multinational task force to ensure safe passage in this region, which sees over six million barrels of oil pass through daily, primarily to Europe.

US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, confirmed that discussions are ongoing with other nations to form a "maritime task force". The proposed 12-nation coalition would include warships from the US, France, the UK, and Israel, potentially increasing the number of warships and enabling attacks on Houthi targets within Yemen.

The Houthis have been targeting vessels in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the world's third-largest choke point for oil shipments. Their retaliation to Israel's bombardment of Gaza escalated with the capture of the Galaxy Leader in November, and subsequent rocket and drone attacks on commercial and naval vessels. This has prompted an increased presence of American and French navies in the Red Sea to safeguard against Houthi attacks.

The Houthi group's history of attacking Red Sea vessels, including the Al Madinah frigate in 2017 and two Saudi oil tankers in 2018, has led the US to contemplate designating the group as a "terror organization". The recent attacks have caused significant disruptions, including fires on the Liberia-flagged vessels Al-Jasrah and MSC Palatium III. Consequently, shipping companies Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all journeys through the Red Sea.

The Houthis, who have claimed responsibility for firing missiles at two ships, have stated their intent to target any ship travelling to Israel, irrespective of its nationality. This is viewed as a pressure tactic against Israel during its offensive on Gaza, which has resulted in over 18,700 fatalities in the two-month-old war against Hamas.

The escalating situation has also led to a surge in insurance costs for ships transiting the area, with increases amounting to tens of thousands of dollars for larger vessels like oil tankers. The rebels have attempted to hijack and capture several ships, succeeding at least once in November, and typically order them to surrender and head to a Yemeni port, opening fire if they do not comply.

As the tensions continue to rise, US, French, and British warships patrol the area, shooting several missiles out of the sky. While the Houthis are the ones pulling the trigger, as Sullivan puts it, they're being handed the gun by Iran. As the world watches this evolving situation, it's clear that the Red Sea has become a high-stakes geopolitical chessboard.

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