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18.12.2023
THEME: WORLD

Hungary's Opposition Stalls €50 Billion EU Aid Package to Ukraine Amid Ongoing Conflict

The unity of the European Union (EU) has recently been put to the test as Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, blocks a proposed €50 billion aid package to Ukraine, referred to as the 'Ukraine Facility'. This comes at a time when Ukraine is dealing with a budget deficit of €39.46 billion in 2024 and daily costs of €124 million related to ongoing conflict. Despite support from 26 EU member countries, Orbán's refusal, citing high levels of corruption in Ukraine and advocating for peace with Russia, has led to an impasse, forcing EU leaders to defer the decision to an extraordinary summit anticipated in January.

The 'Ukraine Facility' is part of a larger €100-billion revision of the EU's long-term budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), intended to assist Ukraine through 2027. The package comprises €33 billion in low-interest loans and €17 billion in non-repayable grants. This financial deadlock is particularly critical for Ukraine, heavily reliant on international funding. In November 2022, the EU had approved an €18-billion support package for Ukraine, notwithstanding Orbán's objections. Furthermore, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell has proposed enhancing support to Ukraine by an additional €20 billion over the next four years via the European Peace Facility (EPF).

On the other side of the Atlantic, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was unsuccessful in securing more aid from Washington due to Republicans' demand for stricter immigration reforms across the southern US border. Despite this setback, Zelenskyy reported receiving "positive signals" from lawmakers.

In a bid to circumvent Hungary's veto, EU leaders have initiated negotiations on Ukraine and Moldova’s accession to the bloc. However, this symbolic gesture doesn't promise immediate relief for Ukraine, given that the process of joining the EU, involving comprehensive reforms from rule of law to the economy, can span years.

Adding another layer of complexity to the situation is Russian President Vladimir Putin's first campaign speech promising to make Russia a "sovereign, self-sufficient" power against the West. This stance, ahead of an election likely to extend his rule until at least 2030, underscores Russia's intent to distance itself from foreign influence.

Despite the ongoing stalemate over the financial package to Ukraine, the EU leaders have shown their commitment to support Ukraine by opening membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova. This move, in defiance of Hungary's opposition, signals unity and support. As the EU leaders reconvene in January, the world will watch to see if they can resolve the deadlock and provide the much-needed assistance to Ukraine.

The resolution of this stalemate will not only impact Ukraine, but will also have significant implications for the EU's credibility and unity. Amid the political negotiations, the people of Ukraine continue to suffer the consequences of the conflict, awaiting the EU's decision in January with bated breath.

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18.12.2023
THEME: ENVIRONMENT

The Turning Tide: COP28 and the Global Shift towards Clean Energy

In 2023, the world witnessed a significant shift towards clean energy, marking a new era of climate action. This was driven by substantial investments in clean energy, legislative changes, and a landmark agreement at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28).

The United States led the way with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which allocated a record $369bn to initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting electrification. This unprecedented investment sparked over $110bn in new clean energy manufacturing investments from the private sector.

In Europe, the EU banned imports of commodities linked to deforestation in June 2023, leading to a sharp decline in the Amazon rainforest's deforestation rate. This followed Brazil's commitment to end deforestation by 2030. Additionally, legal pathways were established for individuals to sue plastic manufacturers for damages, a significant development considering the plastics industry’s 3.3% contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions.

The COP28, held in Dubai, was a key event. World leaders agreed to establish a fund to address climate change-related loss and damage, meeting a $100bn annual pledge to affected countries for the first time. The agreement also included a commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, a first in UN climate negotiations’ 30-year history. Despite criticisms regarding the lack of quantified objectives and ambiguity surrounding the term "transition", the consensus deal was generally welcomed.

The COP28 climate summit concluded on December 13, 2023, with a final deal signaling the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. It called for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and an acceleration of efforts to reduce coal usage through technologies like carbon capture and storage. However, challenges persist, with some developing nations and major oil producers resisting a fossil-fuel phaseout.

Nevertheless, 2023 marked a turning point in the fight against climate change. From the largest dam removal project in American history on the Klamath River to the passing of the High Seas Treaty to protect the world's oceans, the world took unprecedented steps towards a cleaner, more sustainable future. As the year drew to a close, the momentum towards this future was clearly gathering pace, indicating a stronger commitment to change than ever before.

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13.12.2023
THEME: WORLD

The Ongoing Power Struggle: Russia, Ukraine and the Unfolding Political Drama

The political landscape of Eastern Europe is currently in a state of flux, with Russia's presidential election set for March 17. Pivotal to this unfolding drama is President Vladimir Putin, who is expected to run for a fifth term. Putin, aged 71, has been a key player in Russian politics since 2000, serving as either president or prime minister. Constitutional amendments now permit him to pursue two additional six-year terms post his current term's end in 2024. If he secures another term, Putin will surpass Josef Stalin, becoming Russia's longest-serving leader since Empress Catherine the Great.

Despite Putin's anticipated victory, owing to his tight control over Russia's political system and high approval ratings, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin and journalist-lawyer Yekaterina Duntsova have declared their candidature. However, their journey to the ballot is not easy, necessitating either nomination by one of the five parties in the State Duma or collecting tens of thousands of signatures across multiple regions.

Simultaneously, the protracted war with Ukraine continues under Putin's rule. This conflict has led to nearly 20,000 Ukrainian men fleeing the country to avoid conscription, while another 21,113 have been apprehended while attempting to escape. Despite these numbers, Fedir Venislavskyi, the president's parliamentary representative, maintains that the exodus is not affecting the war effort.

The war has also escalated violent incidents, with Ukrainian security services allegedly destroying a rail connection in Russia, prompting a Russian "criminal case of terrorism" investigation. The extent of the damage remains unknown, but Ukrainian sources suggest the aim was to incapacitate infrastructure often used for military purposes by Russians.

Internationally, the conflict has resulted in a surge in landmine casualties in Ukraine, with over 600 people injured or killed by landmines and other explosive remnants in 2022, according to the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL). Only Syria recorded more landmine casualties than Ukraine, with 834 incidents.

Amidst this chaos, the Kremlin is hoping for continued blockage of White House requests for emergency aid to Ukraine by U.S. lawmakers. The funding dispute, primarily over border security issues, has seen Republican senators block $106 billion in emergency aid, mainly aimed at Ukraine and Israel.

Despite the turmoil, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine on updated economic and financial policies under a four-year lending arrangement. This agreement could lead to a $900 million disbursement once approved by the board.

As the geopolitical chessboard shifts, the world watches, hoping for a peaceful resolution. The ongoing conflict underscores the fragility of geopolitical relations and the human toll of power struggles. The question remains: when will this game end, and what will be the cost?

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