NUNZIUM

News That Matters

27/11/2023 ---- 13/12/2023

The political landscape of Eastern Europe is currently in a state of flux, with Russia's presidential election set for March 17. Pivotal to this unfolding drama is President Vladimir Putin, who is expected to run for a fifth term. Putin, aged 71, has been a key player in Russian politics since 2000, serving as either president or prime minister. Constitutional amendments now permit him to pursue two additional six-year terms post his current term's end in 2024. If he secures another term, Putin will surpass Josef Stalin, becoming Russia's longest-serving leader since Empress Catherine the Great.

Despite Putin's anticipated victory, owing to his tight control over Russia's political system and high approval ratings, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin and journalist-lawyer Yekaterina Duntsova have declared their candidature. However, their journey to the ballot is not easy, necessitating either nomination by one of the five parties in the State Duma or collecting tens of thousands of signatures across multiple regions.

Simultaneously, the protracted war with Ukraine continues under Putin's rule. This conflict has led to nearly 20,000 Ukrainian men fleeing the country to avoid conscription, while another 21,113 have been apprehended while attempting to escape. Despite these numbers, Fedir Venislavskyi, the president's parliamentary representative, maintains that the exodus is not affecting the war effort.

The war has also escalated violent incidents, with Ukrainian security services allegedly destroying a rail connection in Russia, prompting a Russian "criminal case of terrorism" investigation. The extent of the damage remains unknown, but Ukrainian sources suggest the aim was to incapacitate infrastructure often used for military purposes by Russians.

Internationally, the conflict has resulted in a surge in landmine casualties in Ukraine, with over 600 people injured or killed by landmines and other explosive remnants in 2022, according to the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL). Only Syria recorded more landmine casualties than Ukraine, with 834 incidents.

Amidst this chaos, the Kremlin is hoping for continued blockage of White House requests for emergency aid to Ukraine by U.S. lawmakers. The funding dispute, primarily over border security issues, has seen Republican senators block $106 billion in emergency aid, mainly aimed at Ukraine and Israel.

Despite the turmoil, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Ukraine on updated economic and financial policies under a four-year lending arrangement. This agreement could lead to a $900 million disbursement once approved by the board.

As the geopolitical chessboard shifts, the world watches, hoping for a peaceful resolution. The ongoing conflict underscores the fragility of geopolitical relations and the human toll of power struggles. The question remains: when will this game end, and what will be the cost?

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The escalating conflict in Gaza, triggered by Israeli attacks, is intensifying the humanitarian crisis in the region. Thousands of Palestinian deaths have been reported, with civilians making up a significant portion of the casualties. The ground offensive launched by Israel has further worsened the situation, trapping approximately two million people in southern and central Gaza.

This crisis is not a sudden event but the climax of a long-standing geopolitical conflict between Israel and Palestine, dating back to the early 20th century. Both parties lay claim to the same land, leading to numerous wars and violent outbreaks, including the current strife.

The expanding Israeli ground offensive has forced a mass evacuation in Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza. The bombardment by Israeli warplanes has pushed Palestinians into an increasingly small portion of the besieged territory, exacerbating the already severe humanitarian conditions. This displacement has been reported by Thomas White, the Gaza chief of the United Nations Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA).

The technological infrastructure in Gaza has taken a significant hit due to the conflict. The collapse of phone and internet networks has further isolated the people trapped within the war-torn region. As the violence escalates, the Health Ministry in Gaza reports over 15,890 deaths and more than 42,000 wounded since October 7.

The Israeli military has been unyielding in their pursuit to eliminate Hamas, a Palestinian Sunni-Islamic group classified as a terrorist organization by several countries, including Israel. Their attack on Israel on October 7 resulted in the death of 1,200 people, triggering the current wave of violence. The Israeli military reportedly struck 200 Hamas targets overnight, with ground troops operating in tandem.

The conflict has created a political stalemate, leading Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to recall negotiators from Qatar due to a deadlock in discussions with Hamas. Thousands of Israeli protesters have taken to the streets, demanding Netanyahu's resignation over his handling of the Gaza situation.

The United States, under Vice President Kamala Harris, has expressed its opposition to the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the escalating tension.

The crisis has precipitated a severe humanitarian emergency, with aid trucks entering Gaza through the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing for the first time since the seven-day truce ended. The truce allowed for the release of hostages and prisoners and the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. However, no aid convoys or fuel deliveries have entered Gaza since hostilities resumed.

This crisis underscores the devastating impact of war on civilians. As the world watches, it's crucial to remember that the crisis in Gaza is more than a geopolitical conflict; it's a humanitarian disaster that requires immediate and decisive action from the global community. Amidst the continued violence, the hope remains for a resolution that brings lasting peace and stability to the region.

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The 28th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Expo City Dubai until December 12, drew global attention towards the urgent need to address climate change. The conference, marked by a historic loss and damage deal, sparked worldwide optimism despite the lingering contentious issue of fossil fuel usage.

COP28 served as a platform for global leaders, scientists, and environmentalists who were united in their quest to mitigate climate change. The summit witnessed a series of pledges and declarations, with over $80 billion mobilized for climate finance. Notably, the food declaration, endorsed by over 100 countries, emphasized the importance of placing climate at the heart of agricultural practices.

The global stocktake, another significant event at the conference, assessed progress towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The science behind this goal is unequivocal, as stated by Simon Stiell, the chief of the U.N. climate agency.

Despite these advancements, the future of fossil fuels was a contentious topic. While over 100 countries, including the US and EU, advocated for a phase-out, countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia resisted such proposals, arguing for the use of carbon capture technologies instead. This disagreement led to calls for wealthy countries to lead any fossil fuel phase-out, with the G77+China bloc of developing countries suggesting a revision of the "phase-down/phase-out" language.

In a positive development, the world’s 10 largest concrete and cement companies, which account for 8% of global CO2 emissions, pledged to decarbonise their industries, targeting net-zero emissions within 25 years.

The second week of the conference saw the presidency taking a more proactive role in guiding the talks towards a successful outcome. Tom Evans, a climate change expert at think tank E3G, opined that the global stocktake decision would likely carry the most politically significant messages.

The conference also underscored the devastating impact of climate change on wildlife, citing the tragic deaths of dozens of elephants in Zimbabwe's Hwange National Park due to climate change and the El Nino global weather pattern.

As COP28 concluded, the focus shifted to the future, particularly the location of the next COP29 summit. Despite Russia's resistance to any EU member as COP president, Azerbaijan emerged as a likely host, with Bulgaria and Moldova also expressing interest.

In summary, while COP28 marked significant strides towards addressing climate change, the battle for a greener future is ongoing. The world now anticipates that the decisions made at COP28 will translate into tangible action, leading to a more sustainable future.

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China is currently experiencing an unexpected surge in respiratory illnesses among children, a situation that has garnered the attention of the World Health Organization (WHO). Initially concentrated in the north, this health crisis has now spread nationwide, leading to school closures and concern among health authorities.

This situation arose in the backdrop of China lifting its strict COVID-19 prevention measures in December 2022, after three years of implementation. This move led to a rapid increase in COVID cases, with an estimated 90% of China's 1.4 billion population reportedly infected. Experts suggest that these stringent measures may have unintentionally weakened immune defenses, mirroring similar infection waves in other countries post their COVID restrictions lift.

The respiratory illnesses among children are believed to be caused by known pathogens such as influenza viruses and mycoplasma bacteria, which typically affect children more than adults. These infections are presenting not just with common lung infection symptoms, but also high fevers and lung or pulmonary nodules, small lumps in the chest. The International Society for Infectious Diseases' information service, ProMED, underscored the situation in China on November 21, noting the unusual speed at which the disease affected children.

Chinese health authorities attribute this surge in cases to the lifting of COVID-19 prevention measures and the spread of known illnesses, including flu, mycoplasma pneumoniae, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2. To curb the spread, they plan to enhance monitoring in health facilities and bolster the capacities of their health systems.

The WHO, in response to the situation, publicly requested data from China, including laboratory results, on December 1, 2023. This request came amid allegations of China withholding medical data during the COVID-19 pandemic, and has since garnered global attention. The WHO has urged the Chinese public to adopt measures to limit the spread of the respiratory infection, such as vaccination, social distancing, mask-wearing, and hand hygiene.

Despite the rise in illnesses, health authorities have not detected any unusual or novel pathogens. Experts like François Balloux, a professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London, and David Heymann, an infectious diseases expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggest that known pathogens are likely causing the outbreak, unless evidence of a new pathogen emerges.

The increase in illnesses has come earlier in the season than historically experienced, likely due to the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions about a year ago. China's current surveillance systems, which are capturing more than 13 pathogens, are detecting an increase in pneumonia, including mycoplasma pneumonia, a common cause of pediatric pneumonia that can be treated with antibiotics. However, Rajib Dasgupta, an epidemiologist and professor of community health at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, warned of possible serious complications from mycoplasma pneumoniae infection.

Despite the worrying situation, doctors in China and experts abroad are not overly concerned. Similar increases in respiratory diseases have been observed in many other countries post easing pandemic measures. Cecille Brion, head of the pediatrics department at Raffles Medical Group Beijing, reassured that the cases are treatable and not unusual.

In summary, the rise in respiratory illnesses among children in China underscores the complexities and consequences of managing a global pandemic. While the situation is concerning, it is not unique to China, and similar patterns have been observed in other countries that have lifted COVID-19 restrictions. The key takeaway is the importance of maintaining preventive measures, such as vaccination and hygiene practices, to limit the spread of these illnesses and protect the most vulnerable among us, our children.

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On a brisk December morning in Brussels, amidst the cacophony of a traffic jam, a significant shift is underway. The European Union (EU) is preparing to enforce new pollution regulations for combustion engine vehicles, a journey proving more complex than initially anticipated.

The proposed "Euro 7" law, aimed at tightening pollutant limits for combustion engine cars, was initially touted by the European Commission as a significant health benefit outweighing its costs. However, on November 9, legislators voted to soften and postpone some of these regulations. While the proposed restrictions on nitrous oxides, particulate matter, and carbon monoxide for cars were preserved, the rules for trucks were relaxed and their implementation delayed by three years.

This decision has ignited a passionate debate. Green lawmakers argue that this is a missed opportunity to curb the approximately 70,000 premature deaths per year in Europe due to vehicular pollution. Conversely, car manufacturers and nations such as Italy and the Czech Republic contend that the original Euro 7 regulations were too expensive. They propose a more prudent investment would be in the production of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in light of the EU's 2035 deadline to cease sales of new CO2-emitting cars.

Across the Atlantic, the EV transition is gathering pace. Despite resistance in some states like Connecticut to plans to stop the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, others, such as California and Washington, have established target dates for majority zero-emissions vehicle sales. In 2023, U.S. EV sales are projected to reach a record 9% of all passenger vehicles, with over a million EVs expected to be sold in a single year for the first time. However, this growth is overshadowed by countries such as China, Germany, and Norway, where EVs accounted for 33%, 35%, and a remarkable 90% of sales, respectively, in the first half of 2023.

The path to extensive EV adoption, however, is not without obstacles. A recent U.S. survey revealed that new EVs had 79% more issues than gasoline-powered cars, primarily due to charging and battery problems. High initial costs and unreliable or inaccessible public charging infrastructure remain substantial hurdles for potential EV purchasers.

In Europe, the European Commission is urging major eurozone nations to roll back energy tax reductions implemented following the Ukraine war. These measures, including decreasing value-added tax on domestic gas supplies and reducing electricity taxes, were designed to mitigate the rising cost of living. However, the Commission recommends these be temporary, cautioning that prolonged support could result in reckless expenditure and potential fines.

In conclusion, the transition from combustion engines to cleaner alternatives is a complex journey filled with intricate negotiations, economic considerations, and technological challenges. Despite these hurdles, the end goal—a world with cleaner air, fewer pollution-related premature deaths, and a more sustainable future—is unquestionably worth the effort. As the traffic in Brussels begins to thin, the hope is that the route to greener transport will similarly become less obstructed.

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Europe's largest economy, Germany, is currently in the throes of a financial crisis that threatens to destabilize its economic stability and growth trajectory. This crisis has been triggered by a recent ruling by Germany's top court blocking the reallocation of approximately €60 billion of unused Covid-19 pandemic debt to climate and transformation projects. This decision has resulted in a spending freeze on new expenditures, particularly those related to green initiatives, throwing the country's budget into disarray.

The root of this financial predicament is Germany's debt brake policy, established in 2009. This policy caps the country's structural budget deficit at roughly 0.35% of its gross domestic product (GDP). While the debt brake can be temporarily lifted during times of exceptional need, its inflexibility has been criticized for hindering Germany's ability to borrow enough to invest in key industries when most needed. This constraint could potentially dampen Germany's competitiveness in the global market, especially considering its sluggish growth and weak demand.

The recent court ruling not only disrupts Germany's progress towards its 2030 emissions and 2045 net-zero targets but also poses a risk to the stability of the current three-way coalition government. The ruling has delayed the 2024 budget announcement plans of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, with the effects possibly extending to financial plans until 2027 due to the €60 billion cut.

Germany's economy is showing signs of strain, as evidenced by the contraction of GDP on 24 November and the shrinking manufacturing sector. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Germany stood at 47.1 in November, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. The construction sector, which contributes 6% to Germany’s GDP, is also facing challenges with falling orders and declining affordability.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised a red flag on 23 November, warning that Germany's budget crisis could hinder the European economy in the coming years. The German Council of Economic Experts forecasts a mild recovery in 2024, but future economic conditions remain contingent on changes in central bank policies or global economic sentiment.

In response to the court ruling, the German government has temporarily suspended the "debt brake" for this year's budget. This suspension, coupled with the cancellation of 60 billion euros of fiscal spending, is expected to have a long-term negative impact on the economy due to austerity measures, prolonged uncertainty, and potentially reduced public investment.

To regain control of the budget, the government is considering measures such as increased taxes on carbon and inheritance, and cuts to subsidies. These measures, however, could affect growth next year and create uncertainty for businesses regarding public aid for the energy crisis and climate transition, potentially leading to lower private investment.

Despite these challenges, Germany remains committed to green initiatives and industry support. The coalition is exploring solutions to preserve as many spending pledges as possible and make them legally compliant. These include drafting a supplementary budget for 2023 and temporarily suspending Germany's self-imposed debt brake before reinstating it next year.

In essence, Germany's current budget crisis is a multifaceted issue that demands careful navigation. The decisions made now will have far-reaching impacts on the country's future economic stability and growth trajectory. As Germany steers through this financial storm, the world watches with cautious optimism, hopeful that Europe's largest economy can weather the storm and emerge stronger on the other side.

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Since May 1, 2023, Sudan has been a hotbed of conflict, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army embroiled in an intense power struggle. The RSF, an offshoot of the infamous Janjaweed militias, has seized control of regions in western and southern Sudan, raising concerns of a potential national split akin to South Sudan's secession a decade ago.

The conflict's genesis lies in a plan to merge the RSF and the army, just four years after their joint effort to topple long-time leader Omar al-Bashir. The RSF's primary objective is to secure access to valuable resources like gold and ensure a pivotal role in any future political resolution. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the RSF's leader, has even proposed that cities under his control should elect their own governments.

The RSF's victories, including the takeover of army headquarters in Nyala, Zalingei, and El Geneina, Darfur state's three out of five capitals, have been disconcerting. Conversely, the army has been struggling with issues such as warplane repairs, dwindling supplies, and salary delays. The situation took a turn for the worse when the RSF temporarily seized control of bases in southern Khartoum and the Jebel Awlia district, leading to mutual accusations of explosions damaging the Shambat Bridge and igniting fuel stores at the al-Jaili refinery.

The conflict has had a devastating impact on the Sudanese population, with the United Nations reporting over 9,000 fatalities and six million displacements out of a population of 49 million. The RSF's advances have raised fears of possible mass atrocities against civilians, with concerns that their rule could worsen the situation for Darfur's 11 million residents due to their alleged inability or unwillingness to control their forces, which have looted entire towns since the war's onset.

The RSF stands accused of severe human rights abuses, including war crimes and genocide. The UN Human Rights Office has documented at least 20 women and girls held in 'slave-like conditions' by individuals in “RSF uniforms” or armed groups “affiliated with the RSF,” and 50 cases of sexual violence, including instances of rape and gang rape. The RSF is also implicated in the attempted ethnic cleansing of the non-Arab Masalit tribe from West Darfur and the assassination of human rights monitors, lawyers, and journalists.

The RSF's actions have drawn international censure, with the United States sanctioning Abdel Raheem Dagalo, the RSF’s deputy leader, for overseeing atrocities in West Darfur. The US embassy in Sudan has voiced concerns about reports of “serious human rights abuses” committed recently in West Darfur.

As the RSF inches closer to total control of Darfur, the world watches anxiously. The region's fate hangs in the balance, with a significant humanitarian disaster looming. The Sudanese people, already subjected to immense suffering, now face the prospect of escalating chaos and human rights violations under RSF rule. The international community must not ignore this impending crisis. The people of Sudan deserve peace, justice, and an opportunity to rebuild their lives.

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