The political landscape of Slovakia is undergoing a significant transformation as former Prime Minister Robert Fico initiates negotiations to form a coalition government. Fico's Smer-SD party, founded in 1999, secured nearly 23% of the votes in the recent elections, paving the way for his possible fourth term. Born on 15 September 1964, Fico, a former Communist party member, has emerged as a key player in Slovak politics, notably leading the country into the eurozone in 2009.
Fico's political career, however, has been marred by controversy. Despite his election victory in 2010, he failed to form a coalition and resigned in 2018 amidst protests over a journalist's murder. Fico's admiration for Putin and Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban, his resistance to aiding Ukraine against Russia, and criticism of sanctions against Moscow have drawn attention. His views on immigration, same-sex marriage, adoption, and his opposition to Covid pandemic measures such as masks, lockdowns, and vaccination have also been contentious.
As Fico begins coalition talks, political analysts anticipate he will seek alliances with the moderate Hlas and the nationalist, pro-Russian Slovak National party (SNS). This potential coalition could command a slim majority of 79 seats in the 150-seat Slovak parliament. Nevertheless, observers caution about potential threats to the rule of law, the judiciary, media, and minority rights under this coalition.
Fico's potential return to power could also influence Slovakia's foreign policy. The country's arms shipments to Ukraine might decelerate or halt entirely, and Slovakia may align more closely with Hungary's Viktor Orban, thereby challenging the EU’s consensus on military support for Kyiv, migration, and the green transition.
The election results have stirred diverse reactions. Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal and pro-Ukrainian party that secured 18% of the vote, has pledged to do everything possible to prevent Fico from governing. Slovakia's President, Zuzana Čaputová, who has tasked Fico with forming a government, has responded with restrained enthusiasm to his victory.
Fico's victory has also caused unease among European Union and NATO members due to his stance on Ukraine and his criticism of the EU and NATO. As a member of both NATO and the European Union, Slovakia has traditionally backed Ukraine and called for strong EU sanctions against Russia, a position that may shift under a Smer-SD-led government.
However, not all outlooks are bleak. Some analysts suggest that Fico may steer clear of damaging disputes with Slovakia's main EU and NATO partners, given the probable participation of the more moderate Hlas in the coalition.
With Fico's coalition negotiations underway, the future of Slovakia's political landscape is at a critical juncture. The outcomes of these discussions could have far-reaching implications for not only Slovakia but the entire European Union. Whether Fico will guide Slovakia towards a more nationalist, anti-western direction or strike a balance between pro-EU positions and his own rhetoric is yet to be determined. What is certain is that Slovakia's political future is embarking on a crucial new chapter.
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