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11.07.2023
THEME: WORLD

The Intricate Geopolitical Chess Game: NATO, EU, and the Ukrainian Conflict

The geopolitical chess game of alliances and strategies continues to evolve, with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently agreeing to support Sweden's bid to join NATO. This unexpected development, announced by NATO's chief Jens Stoltenberg, signals a significant shift in Turkey's stance, which had previously blocked Sweden's application due to accusations of hosting Kurdish militants. However, Sweden has since taken substantial measures to address Turkey's security concerns, including constitutional amendments, expansion of counter-terrorism operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, and the resumption of arms exports to Turkey.

Erdogan's support for Sweden's NATO bid is contingent on the European Union reopening frozen membership talks with Ankara, a proposition that EU officials have so far rejected. Despite this, NATO has confirmed that Sweden would back efforts to "reinvigorate Turkey's EU accession process". Turkey's journey towards EU membership, initiated in 1987, has been fraught with challenges and delays due to Turkey's increasing authoritarian tendencies.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to strain relations between NATO and Russia. The recent two-day NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, highlighted Ukraine's bid for membership, although all alliance members concur that Ukraine cannot join NATO amidst active warfare with Russia. On the battlefield, Ukrainian artillery troops are reportedly outmatched, with their adversaries using significantly more ammunition daily. Essential supplies from allies, including cluster munitions from the US, have been vital for Ukraine in this conflict.

Ukrainians view NATO membership as a potential deterrent to Russia and a path towards ending the war. While acknowledging the need for reforms to meet NATO's membership requirements, Ukrainians are seeking clearer and more concrete assurances from the alliance. However, some NATO members are wary of offering too much to Ukraine, fearing potential engagement in a war with Russia.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has deployed his Akhmat military unit to Bakhmut, an eastern Ukrainian city where fighting has intensified. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar confirmed Kadyrov’s account of heavy fighting around Bakhmut.

US President Joe Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs has elicited mixed reactions. While Ukraine's leader commended the move as "timely", it was criticized by UK's Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and Spain's Defence Minister, Margarita Robles.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently met with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary group, the Wagner Group, following an unsuccessful mutiny last month. The Wagner Group, a private army, has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine since the invasion last year.

As the world closely observes the unfolding NATO summit, the stakes are high in this intricate web of alliances, negotiations, and conflicts. The hope is for resolutions that will bring peace and stability to the regions impacted by these geopolitical complexities.

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07.07.2023
THEME: WORLD

US Supplies Controversial Cluster Munitions to Ukraine Amid Nuclear Power Plant Crisis

In an announcement made on the eve of the NATO summit in Lithuania, the Biden administration revealed its decision to supply Ukraine with thousands of cluster bombs. These weapons, which disperse smaller bomblets over a large area, have been banned by over two-thirds of NATO members due to their history of causing civilian casualties. Despite this, the US views these munitions as a critical tool in bolstering Ukraine's offensive capabilities and penetrating Russian front lines.

The cluster bombs being sent to Ukraine are of a version with a reduced "dud rate," indicating that less than 3% of the smaller bomblets fail to explode. This decision is part of a larger €730 million package of military aid from the US, which also includes Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles and various types of ammunition. The last significant deployment of cluster bombs by the US was during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with the weapons also playing a pivotal role during the 2001 Afghanistan invasion.

Meanwhile, there's a growing concern over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, seized by Russian forces earlier in 2022. Reports indicate that the facility may have been mined by the occupying forces, with "objects resembling explosives" found on two blocks of the power plant. Experts warn that a leak could cause the plant's cooling water, which can reach 280 degrees Celsius, to evaporate, leaving a mere 27-hour window to prevent radiation from escaping. Any detonation within Zaporizhzhia's cooling system could potentially result in a disaster akin to Fukushima, Japan.

In another twist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner mercenary group, was confirmed to be in Russia, contradicting earlier reports of his presence in Belarus. Prigozhin has instigated a rebellion against Russia's military leadership, marking a significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin's authority. This internal conflict has further divided Russia's anti-Kremlin opposition, with figures such as exiled former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky backing Prigozhin.

The US's controversial decision to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions, the potential nuclear threat at Zaporizhzhia, and the internal discord within Russia's opposition contribute to an increasingly complex and volatile geopolitical landscape. The choices made in the coming days will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of this conflict, potentially leaving lasting impacts on international relations and the lives of numerous civilians.

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