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29/06/2023 ---- 02/07/2023

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02.07.2023
THEME: ENVIRONMENT

"Heat Dome Havoc: Texas and the Rising Threat of Extreme Heatwaves"

The Southern US, particularly Texas, experienced a lethal heatwave on June 17th, with temperatures reaching an unbearable 119F (48C). This extreme heat, which resulted in several deaths, was caused by a "heat dome," a ridge of high pressure that traps hot ocean air over a region. The heat dome, likened to a lid over a boiling pot, combined with an unusually warm Gulf of Mexico and the timing around the summer solstice, led to this extreme heat, explained John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Centre at Texas A&M University.

This alarming event is not isolated and is a clear indicator of the escalating impacts of climate change. Over the past century, Texas has warmed between half and one degree Fahrenheit, a subtle change with significant implications. If this trend persists, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) predicts a three to four-fold increase in days per year above 100F (38C) in Texas by the end of the century.

The human toll of such heatwaves is devastating, with extreme heat being the deadliest natural hazard in the US. Particularly vulnerable are children and adults over 65. In 2022 alone, heat-related illnesses claimed more than 275 lives in Texas, with the current heat dome causing at least a dozen deaths in Texas and Louisiana. A 2010 study revealed that a "wet-bulb" temperature of 95F (35C) at 100% humidity, or 115F at 50% humidity, marks the threshold where the human body struggles to maintain a healthy core temperature, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses.

The economic implications are equally significant. Infrastructure upgrades to cope with future heatwaves come with a hefty price tag, with an estimated cost of US$66.5 bn (£52.7bn) for improving wind and solar resources in Texas by 2030.

Future projections are equally concerning. A 2021 report by Rutgers University suggests that three degrees of global warming could put 1.2 billion people at risk of heat stress annually. By 2070, four million Americans could be living outside "the ideal niche for human life," according to a joint effort between ProPublica and The New York Times.

The recent Texas heatwave is a stark reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of global extreme heat events due to human-induced climate change. Over the past three weeks, a high-pressure ridge has caused temperatures to rise above 48C (120F) in parts of southern US and Mexico. Over 40 million people, including residents of Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, have been under excessive heat warnings.

The heatwave has strained Texas's energy grid due to increased air conditioner use. The burning of fossil fuels has made such extreme heatwaves at least five times more likely, according to Climate Central, a climate science non-profit. Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, emphasizes the unusual early arrival of such extreme heat, making this one of the hottest Junes ever recorded in southern Texas.

Michael Wehner, a climate and extreme weather expert at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, estimated that human-caused global warming made the Texas heatwave around 2.7C (5F) hotter. He warns, "Dangerous climate change is here, now." The current heatwave has not only claimed lives but also strained power grids, with power outages exacerbating the risks in cities like Memphis, where tens of thousands of residents remain without power following storms.

In conclusion, the recent Texas heatwave is a chilling reminder of the escalating impacts of climate change and a call to action to address its root causes. As we prepare for a future where such extreme heat events become increasingly common, the heat dome may have lifted, but the issue remains a burning concern.

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01.07.2023
THEME: HEALTH

Unveiling the Genetic Shield: A Defense Against Bird Flu

In an era where pandemics have become a reality, the discovery of a genetic defense against bird flu by scientists from the University of Glasgow is a significant development. Bird flus, since 1918, have triggered four pandemics, including the infamous 1918 flu pandemic, which claimed approximately 50 million lives. This pandemic, like the others, is believed to have originated from birds.

The scientists identified a segment of our genetic code, BTN3A3, which serves as a defense mechanism against bird flus. BTN3A3 becomes active in our nasal passages, throat, and lungs upon detection of an infection. This activation impedes the replication of bird flus, effectively thwarting their invasion. This defense mechanism has proven effective against most bird flus, preventing them from transitioning to humans.

However, all pandemic viruses to date have evolved to resist BTN3A3, allowing them to bypass this defense and infect humans. This was the case with the H7N9 bird flu, which developed heightened resistance to BTN3A3 in 2011 and 2012, leading to the first human cases in 2013.

Currently, the world's bird populations are grappling with the largest bird flu outbreak ever recorded, attributed to the H5N1 virus. Over half of the virus samples from birds and all seven human cases detected this year have demonstrated resistance to BTN3A3. This underscores that the ability to resist BTN3A3 is but one facet of the virus's threat to human health.

The research team, spearheaded by Prof Massimo Palmarini, director of the Centre for Virus Research in Glasgow, plans to routinely analyze the genetic code of flus circulating in birds. The objective is to identify and neutralize the dangerous strains before they can trigger a pandemic. Prof Palmarini is optimistic that this research will allow for accurate predictions of which viruses are likely to cross over to humans in the future.

The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) has been dedicated to enhancing global animal health since 1924. They supervise various programs aimed at improving Veterinary and Aquatic Animal Health Services. Avian influenza, or 'bird flu', is a significant concern for WOAH due to its implications for the poultry industry, farmer’s livelihoods, international trade, and the health of wild birds.

Avian influenza is a highly infectious viral disease affecting both domestic and wild birds, and occasionally, mammalian species, including humans. The disease, caused by viruses divided into multiple subtypes such as H5N1, H5N3, H5N8, is spread through direct contact with secretions from infected birds or contaminated feed and water.

From 2005 to 2020, avian influenza resulted in the death or culling of 246 million poultry. During this period, humans have been sporadically infected with subtypes H5N1, H7N9, H5N6, with infrequent cases reported with subtypes H7N7 and H9N2.

WOAH has established international standards on avian influenza, providing a framework for effective surveillance and control measures. Through the OFFLU network, WOAH collaborates with partners to assess the risks of avian influenza viruses and offer guidance to the international community.

In conclusion, while bird flu remains a significant threat to both human and animal health, the discovery of our genetic defense and the relentless efforts of organizations like WOAH offer a ray of hope. As we continue to decode the mysteries of our genetic code and enhance our surveillance and control measures, we edge closer to a future where pandemics are relegated to history.

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29.06.2023
THEME: ENVIRONMENT

The Tipping Point: Unraveling the Impacts of Human Activities and Climate Change on Ecosystems

Our planet is at a critical juncture with over 20% of our ecosystems on the brink of collapse, a worrying reality underscored by the intricate web of life under threat. This is not a mere environmental issue but a matter of survival for all species, including humans. The combined effects of human-induced stresses and climate change are accelerating this potential ecosystem collapse, a reality brought to light by the research of John Dearing, Gregory Cooper, and Simon Willcock.

Their study, published in Nature Sustainability in June 2023, utilized computer models to simulate future ecosystem behavior in response to changes. Focusing on forests and lake water quality, along with the Chilika lagoon fishery in Odisha, India, and Easter Island in the Pacific Ocean, the team conducted over 70,000 simulations. The alarming results suggested that the confluence of stress and extreme weather events could hasten ecosystem tipping points by 30-80%, potentially leading to collapses expected later this century occurring within the next few decades.

Interestingly, the study found that around 15% of ecosystem collapses in the simulations were triggered by new stresses or extreme events, even while the main stress remained constant. This underscores the importance of the speed at which stress is applied in determining system collapse. Unlike economic systems, collapsed ecosystems cannot be immediately restored with natural capital, highlighting the absence of ecological bailouts.

The research also questioned the accuracy of conventional modeling approaches in estimating the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. It revealed that while ecosystem collapses occur sooner under increasing primary stress, additional stresses and/or noise significantly expedite these collapses. This aligns with the UK Chief Scientist, John Beddington's prediction of a 'perfect storm' of global events by 2030 and the concept of 'cascades of collapse', where Earth's ecosystems rapidly destabilize.

Despite a global decrease in birth rates and an increase in renewable energy generation, population, greenhouse gas concentrations, and economic drivers continue to trend upwards. This is coupled with an increased frequency and magnitude of erratic events such as heatwaves and precipitation extremes, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report.

The report warns that multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounded overall risk and cascading risks across sectors and regions. There is a looming danger that many tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw, could be triggered within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to 2 °C warming.

In conclusion, the research by Dearing, Cooper, and Willcock serves as a stark wake-up call. The combined effects of human activities and climate change could accelerate the collapse of our ecosystems, potentially triggering a catastrophic chain reaction of ecosystem collapses, an "ecological doom-loop". The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated, and immediate action is required to prevent a catastrophic collapse of our planet's ecosystems. Our survival, and that of our planet, hinges on our response.

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