NUNZIUM

News That Matters

29/06/2023 ---- 01/07/2023

In an era where pandemics have become a reality, the discovery of a genetic defense against bird flu by scientists from the University of Glasgow is a significant development. Bird flus, since 1918, have triggered four pandemics, including the infamous 1918 flu pandemic, which claimed approximately 50 million lives. This pandemic, like the others, is believed to have originated from birds.

The scientists identified a segment of our genetic code, BTN3A3, which serves as a defense mechanism against bird flus. BTN3A3 becomes active in our nasal passages, throat, and lungs upon detection of an infection. This activation impedes the replication of bird flus, effectively thwarting their invasion. This defense mechanism has proven effective against most bird flus, preventing them from transitioning to humans.

However, all pandemic viruses to date have evolved to resist BTN3A3, allowing them to bypass this defense and infect humans. This was the case with the H7N9 bird flu, which developed heightened resistance to BTN3A3 in 2011 and 2012, leading to the first human cases in 2013.

Currently, the world's bird populations are grappling with the largest bird flu outbreak ever recorded, attributed to the H5N1 virus. Over half of the virus samples from birds and all seven human cases detected this year have demonstrated resistance to BTN3A3. This underscores that the ability to resist BTN3A3 is but one facet of the virus's threat to human health.

The research team, spearheaded by Prof Massimo Palmarini, director of the Centre for Virus Research in Glasgow, plans to routinely analyze the genetic code of flus circulating in birds. The objective is to identify and neutralize the dangerous strains before they can trigger a pandemic. Prof Palmarini is optimistic that this research will allow for accurate predictions of which viruses are likely to cross over to humans in the future.

The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) has been dedicated to enhancing global animal health since 1924. They supervise various programs aimed at improving Veterinary and Aquatic Animal Health Services. Avian influenza, or 'bird flu', is a significant concern for WOAH due to its implications for the poultry industry, farmer’s livelihoods, international trade, and the health of wild birds.

Avian influenza is a highly infectious viral disease affecting both domestic and wild birds, and occasionally, mammalian species, including humans. The disease, caused by viruses divided into multiple subtypes such as H5N1, H5N3, H5N8, is spread through direct contact with secretions from infected birds or contaminated feed and water.

From 2005 to 2020, avian influenza resulted in the death or culling of 246 million poultry. During this period, humans have been sporadically infected with subtypes H5N1, H7N9, H5N6, with infrequent cases reported with subtypes H7N7 and H9N2.

WOAH has established international standards on avian influenza, providing a framework for effective surveillance and control measures. Through the OFFLU network, WOAH collaborates with partners to assess the risks of avian influenza viruses and offer guidance to the international community.

In conclusion, while bird flu remains a significant threat to both human and animal health, the discovery of our genetic defense and the relentless efforts of organizations like WOAH offer a ray of hope. As we continue to decode the mysteries of our genetic code and enhance our surveillance and control measures, we edge closer to a future where pandemics are relegated to history.

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Our planet is at a critical juncture with over 20% of our ecosystems on the brink of collapse, a worrying reality underscored by the intricate web of life under threat. This is not a mere environmental issue but a matter of survival for all species, including humans. The combined effects of human-induced stresses and climate change are accelerating this potential ecosystem collapse, a reality brought to light by the research of John Dearing, Gregory Cooper, and Simon Willcock.

Their study, published in Nature Sustainability in June 2023, utilized computer models to simulate future ecosystem behavior in response to changes. Focusing on forests and lake water quality, along with the Chilika lagoon fishery in Odisha, India, and Easter Island in the Pacific Ocean, the team conducted over 70,000 simulations. The alarming results suggested that the confluence of stress and extreme weather events could hasten ecosystem tipping points by 30-80%, potentially leading to collapses expected later this century occurring within the next few decades.

Interestingly, the study found that around 15% of ecosystem collapses in the simulations were triggered by new stresses or extreme events, even while the main stress remained constant. This underscores the importance of the speed at which stress is applied in determining system collapse. Unlike economic systems, collapsed ecosystems cannot be immediately restored with natural capital, highlighting the absence of ecological bailouts.

The research also questioned the accuracy of conventional modeling approaches in estimating the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. It revealed that while ecosystem collapses occur sooner under increasing primary stress, additional stresses and/or noise significantly expedite these collapses. This aligns with the UK Chief Scientist, John Beddington's prediction of a 'perfect storm' of global events by 2030 and the concept of 'cascades of collapse', where Earth's ecosystems rapidly destabilize.

Despite a global decrease in birth rates and an increase in renewable energy generation, population, greenhouse gas concentrations, and economic drivers continue to trend upwards. This is coupled with an increased frequency and magnitude of erratic events such as heatwaves and precipitation extremes, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report.

The report warns that multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounded overall risk and cascading risks across sectors and regions. There is a looming danger that many tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw, could be triggered within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to 2 °C warming.

In conclusion, the research by Dearing, Cooper, and Willcock serves as a stark wake-up call. The combined effects of human activities and climate change could accelerate the collapse of our ecosystems, potentially triggering a catastrophic chain reaction of ecosystem collapses, an "ecological doom-loop". The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated, and immediate action is required to prevent a catastrophic collapse of our planet's ecosystems. Our survival, and that of our planet, hinges on our response.

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