NUNZIUM

News That Matters

04/06/2023 ---- 13/06/2023

The world is experiencing a sizzling summer with high temperatures, El Niño events, and cyclone threats. China's crucial flood control facility, the Three Gorges Dam, saw its water level drop to 151.9 meters on June 6, 2023, while northern China is expected to face temperatures above 35°C in the next three days. Frequent rainfall and possible heavy rainstorms are also expected along the Yangtze River. High temperatures are arriving earlier and increasing in number of days in most of China, as well as in India, Vietnam, and Singapore, with some breaking historical records.

Spring 2023 had higher-than-average national temperatures in China, ranking seventh highest in history, and precipitation has been generally less than average. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. Guangdong has issued high-temperature subsidies to workers, and Jiangsu Province's daily power load has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, prompting State Grid Jiangsu Electric Co to launch an "electricity calendar" function for users to save electricity during peak periods.

The climate-changing trend will become more obvious unless energy usage shifts to green energy, according to Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University. The Global Climate Status Report 2022 by WMO states that 2015-2022 was the warmest eight years on record, with glacial melt and sea-level rises reaching record levels in 2022. An El Niño event has started in the Pacific Ocean, likely to make 2024 the world's hottest year and potentially pushing global warming past the key 1.5°C milestone. This phenomenon affects world weather, causing drought in Australia, increased rain in southern US, and a weakened Indian monsoon. The El Niño event is expected to last until next spring.

US scientists confirmed El Niño conditions in May, with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength by the end of the year. Global temperatures are currently around 1.1°C above the 1850-1900 average, and the El Niño event could add up to 0.2°C to global temperatures. Researchers say a temporary breach of the 1.5°C limit is likely in the next few years. The El Nino phenomenon has arrived, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), last occurring from 2018 to 2019. It can cause heavy rainfall, droughts, and temperature records in certain locations, with climate change exacerbating or mitigating its impacts.

Increased rainfall is expected in southern South America, central Asia, and the Horn of Africa, while there is an increased risk of droughts in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia. Australia has been warned of warmer, drier days and increased wildfire vulnerability. Japan partly blamed El Niño for its warmest spring on record. The phenomenon suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic and boosts typhoon activity in the central and eastern Pacific.

Tens of thousands have been evacuated in India and Pakistan due to Cyclone Biparjoy, with over 40,000 people leaving their homes as the cyclone approaches. The cyclone is expected to make landfall as a "very severe cyclonic storm," with gales up to 150 km/h (93 mph) predicted for coastlines. Rains and storms ahead of the cyclone have already killed seven people in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Scientists warn that the intensity of tropical cyclones will increase due to climate change, making preparations more vital than ever. Addressing the root causes of climate change and working towards a more sustainable future is crucial as the world faces the consequences of a sizzling summer.

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NATO's largest air defense exercise since its formation in 1949, Air Defender 23, is set to take place from June 12 to 23, involving over 10,000 soldiers from 25 countries and more than 100 aircraft, including F-35 stealth combat aircraft from the US. Germany will host the exercise and serve as the logistical hub, with three flight zones in the country temporarily closed to civilian air traffic. The drills will include evacuation from an airfield, supporting ground troops, airborne battles, and interception of medium-range missiles, while the North Sea will see defensive drills against enemy submarines or ships. This show of force comes at a time of heightened tensions with Russia, particularly due to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

The situation in Ukraine has worsened, with thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the city of Kherson and downstream areas due to rising flood waters from the Kakhovka dam breach. Accusations are flying between Ukrainian and Russian authorities over responsibility for the disaster, which has left at least 16,000 people homeless and thousands more at risk of flooding. The United Nations and Amnesty International have called the situation a "huge humanitarian disaster," with long-term consequences predicted for agriculture in the region and global wheat prices.

The Ukrainian army has launched an offensive to break through Russian defenses, with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believing that a Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun, aiming to push back Russian forces and reclaim occupied territories. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest nuclear facility, is under threat due to catastrophic flooding from the Kakhovka dam collapse. The plant's last operating reactor has been put into cold shutdown as a safety precaution, although the Ukrainian nuclear energy agency Energoatom has stated that there is "no direct threat" to the plant due to the dam breach. However, shelling near the site and damaged overhead lines connecting the plant to Ukraine's energy system have raised concerns.

International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Mariano Grossi is set to visit Kyiv next week to discuss a new program to help avoid nuclear disaster. At the same time, Ukrainian authorities report at least four civilian deaths in Russian strikes using Iranian-made Shahed drones, missiles, and artillery, further intensifying the conflict. As the crisis in Ukraine unfolds, NATO's Air Defender 23 exercise serves as a powerful reminder of the alliance's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the region, with participating countries standing united and ready to face any challenge.

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The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, led by General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti), has resulted in over 1,000 deaths in the capital city, Khartoum, and the Darfur region. Despite ceasefires, fighting continues, forcing residents to conduct amateur burials in unconventional locations, potentially destroying evidence of war crimes and spreading disease.

Health authorities are collaborating with the Red Cross and the Sudanese Red Crescent to move bodies to cemeteries, but ongoing violence hinders their efforts. A war crimes tribunal seems remote amidst the current chaos. A 24-hour ceasefire on June 11 allowed civilians to stock up on supplies or flee the area.

The conflict has led to over 1,800 deaths and nearly two million displaced people, according to the NGO Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project and UN data. Egypt has reversed its visa exemption for certain Sudanese nationals, citing a crackdown on "illegal activities."

Sudan faces a potential famine due to the conflict, with Muzan Alneel of the ISTiNAD research center highlighting the rapidly decreasing resources and lack of crops. The Sudanese economy is near collapse, with high inflation, a collapsed financial system, and a lack of essential resources. The Health Ministry reports around 800 deaths and at least 6,000 injured, but the real numbers are likely higher.

Theodore Murphy of the European Council on Foreign Relations and Hager Ali of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies emphasize the importance of support in resolving the conflict. Ethnic differences in the Darfur region are fueling the violence, similar to the conflict in 2003-2005. The UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs confirms reports of arbitrary killings, looting, and rape. As the struggle for power continues, the people of Sudan face an uncertain future, with the threat of famine, disease, and ongoing violence casting a dark shadow over the nation.

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Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on seven counts concerning his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House in 2021. The charges include obstruction of justice, destruction or falsification of records, conspiracy, false statements, and a charge under the Espionage Act. This is the second time Trump has faced criminal charges this year, following an April indictment by the Manhattan district attorney. The indictment comes amidst Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and ongoing criminal charges in two jurisdictions.

Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Special Counsel Jack Smith seven months ago to investigate Trump's handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Since the investigation began in August, 11,000 documents have been seized from Trump's Florida property, with around 100 classified or top-secret. Trump is scheduled to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tuesday, with the US Secret Service and US Marshals not receiving advance notice of the indictment.

Trump's congressional allies have defended him on social media, and his aides and advisers are reportedly prepared to fight back. However, some close to Trump are concerned about the indictment's long-term impact. Democrats emphasize that no one is above the rule of law.

Trump responded to the indictment on his Truth Social platform, proclaiming his innocence and accusing the Department of Justice of using "warfare" to halt his 2024 candidacy. Georgetown University Law Center professor David Super believes the indictments will not hinder Trump's ability to run for office. The trial will take place in Florida, a state that supported Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Trump's lawyer, James Trusty, has disclosed the likely charges, and Trump is currently staying at his Bedminster, New Jersey golf resort.

Two additional investigations into Trump's conduct are ongoing, including a separate inquiry into his alleged role in the January 6 Capitol riot, also overseen by Jack Smith. The Justice Department has not commented or confirmed the announcement made on Trump's Truth Social platform regarding the indictment.

This marks the first time a former president has been indicted on criminal charges, with former federal prosecutor Joe Moreno calling the situation "embarrassing." The charges relate to the violation of federal laws, including "gathering, transmitting or losing defense information" under the Espionage Act.

In summary, the indictment of Trump on seven counts related to his handling of classified documents adds another dimension to his 2024 presidential campaign. While the trial's outcome is uncertain, the case will continue to generate headlines and fuel intense debate across the political spectrum.

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Insomnia may be a silent threat to your health, particularly if you're under 50 years old, as it has been linked to an increased risk of stroke. A recent nine-year study conducted by Wendemi Sawadogo, an epidemiologist and researcher at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, followed over 31,000 people with no history of stroke and found a significant association between insomnia and stroke risk.

The study revealed that those with five to eight symptoms of insomnia had a 51% increased risk of stroke compared to those without insomnia, while those with one to four symptoms had a 16% increased risk. In April, another study reported that people who slept less than five hours a night were three times more likely to have a stroke than those who got seven hours of sleep. Sleeping more than nine hours increased stroke risk twofold, while sleep apnea was associated with a threefold increase in stroke risk. Snoring increased the risk by 91%, snorting by almost three times, and napping for over an hour increased stroke risk by 88%.

Dr. Phyllis Zee, director of the Center for Circadian and Sleep Medicine at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago, explains that poor sleep can disrupt the body's ability to regulate metabolism, blood pressure, and inflammation, all risk factors for stroke. Good sleep hygiene, a healthy diet, and regular exercise can reduce the negative impact of sleep disorders and decrease stroke and cardiovascular disease risk.

The link between insomnia and stroke risk is stronger in participants under 50, with nearly four times the risk of having a stroke. The findings were published in the journal Neurology. The research involved over 31,000 participants with an average age of 61 and no history of stroke, followed for an average of nine years. Participants were asked about their sleep quality, with scores ranging from zero to eight (higher numbers indicating more severe symptoms).

Researchers adjusted for factors affecting stroke risk, such as alcohol use, smoking, and physical activity level. Of the 2,101 cases of stroke, 1,300 had one to four symptoms, 436 had five to eight symptoms, and 365 had no symptoms. Participants under 50 with five to eight symptoms had nearly four times the risk of stroke compared to those with no symptoms, while people aged 50 or older with the same number of symptoms had a 38% increased risk of stroke compared to those without symptoms.

The association was greater for people with diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and depression. Managing insomnia symptoms at a younger age may be an effective strategy for stroke prevention. Future research should explore stroke risk reduction through management of sleeping problems.

The INTERSTROKE study, an international case-control study of patients with first acute stroke and matched controls, also found sleep disturbance symptoms associated with increased odds of acute stroke. Sleep disturbance symptoms may be a marker of increased individual risk or represent independent risk factors. Sleep interventions in stroke prevention need further investigation in clinical trials.

In conclusion, taking steps to improve your sleep hygiene, maintain a healthy diet, and exercise regularly can help reduce the risk of stroke and other serious medical conditions. Don't let insomnia steal your sleep and your health – take action today!

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As global tensions rise and alliances are tested, the upcoming NATO summit on July 11 in Vilnius, Lithuania, is of significant importance. With Finland having already joined the alliance earlier this year, NATO aims to admit Sweden by this date. However, Turkey and Hungary are currently blocking Sweden's accession, with Turkey accusing Sweden of allowing Kurdish terror groups to operate within its borders and being complicit in far-right protests and Quran burnings. This objection comes at a time when NATO has experienced increased unity and defense spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Turkey's veto could undermine this progress.

The deadline for Sweden's accession holds critical implications for the Western alliance, as missing it could signal weakness to adversaries. In response, the US and UK are offering Sweden assurances and prioritizing its accession, while Turkey seeks approval from the US Congress for its purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. Concurrently, Russia claims to have thwarted a major Ukrainian attack in Donetsk, killing 300 troops and destroying 16 tanks. This increase in military activity suggests a Ukrainian counter-offensive may have begun, with Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting troops "moving forward" towards Bakhmut.

Meanwhile, in the Asia-Pacific region, China and Russia conducted a joint aerial strategic patrol on May 24, 2022, marking their sixth joint patrol over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. This comes amid rising tensions in the region and no meeting between Chinese and US defense chiefs at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The US has made provocations, including sending a spy plane to the South China Sea and partnering with Canada in a warship transit in the Taiwan Straits. NATO's potential expansion into the Asia-Pacific region has raised concerns after Japan announced a plan to open NATO's first liaison office in Asia. The China-Russia joint strategic patrol serves as a counterbalance to US hegemonic actions and demonstrates their capabilities in safeguarding peace and stability in the West Pacific.

Back in Europe, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam was destroyed in southern Ukraine, causing thousands of people to be evacuated from surrounding areas due to flooding. Ukraine's military and NATO accuse Russia of blowing up the dam, while Russia blames Ukraine. The dam, built during the Soviet era, is one of six dams along the Dnipro river and holds water equal to the Great Salt Lake in Utah, US. The breach in the dam has caused flooding downstream in the direction of Kherson, impacting 16,000 people living in the critical zone and contaminating the river with 150 tonnes of industrial lubricant. The International Atomic Energy Agency is monitoring the situation, as the dam supplies water to communities, farmers, and the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia. The dam is also vital for carrying water to Russian-occupied Crimea, and its destruction could worsen Ukraine's energy problem and disrupt irrigation in Crimea.

As the global chessboard of conflict unfolds, the upcoming NATO summit and Sweden's potential accession hold significant implications for the balance of power. The interconnected nature of global politics means that decisions made in one part of the world can have ripple effects elsewhere, and all eyes will be on Vilnius come July 11. Will NATO maintain its unity and continue to expand, or will internal divisions and external pressures cause the alliance to falter? Only time will tell.

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Recent findings from The Ocean Race have revealed alarming concentrations of microplastics in the world's oceans, including the most remote areas. With concentrations up to 1,884 particles per cubic meter of seawater, this is an 18-fold increase from the 2017-18 Ocean Race. Microplastics, tiny plastic particles measuring between 0.03 mm and 5 mm, pose a significant threat to marine life and ecosystems.

The Ocean Race, a 62,000km sailing competition that began in January and finishes in July, allows sailors to collect data on various environmental factors in locations rarely reached by research vessels. So far, 40 samples have been analyzed, with microplastics found in each one. The highest concentrations were found near urban areas, coastlines, and "garbage patch" areas. Even near Point Nemo, the most remote area in the ocean, 320 microplastic particles per cubic meter were found, a significant increase from the 9-41 particles found during the last race.

These high concentrations of microplastics near shorelines are particularly concerning for fisheries production and the blue economy, which relies heavily on healthy marine ecosystems. The microplastics research is part of a science program during The Ocean Race, involving two teams: GUYOT environnement - Team Europe and Team Holcim - PRB. The samples are sent daily to the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) for analysis, with support from the University of Rhode Island.

The Ocean Race science initiative is part of the Racing with Purpose sustainability program, and all teams in the competition carry equipment to collect data on human impact on the ocean. The race started in Alicante, Spain on 15th January 2023 and will end in Genova, Italy in June. This year's race is also analyzing microplastic fibers, which were not tested in the previous edition. The Ocean Race contributes data to the Ocean Decade Odyssey project, part of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030).

In conclusion, the alarming increase in microplastic concentrations found during The Ocean Race highlights the urgent need for global action to reduce plastic pollution and protect our oceans. The race serves as a stark reminder of the human impact on even the most remote areas of our planet, emphasizing the importance of preserving the health and sustainability of our oceans for future generations.

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The Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) is an annual inter-governmental security conference held in Singapore since 2002, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). It serves as a crucial platform for fostering a sense of community among defense and security policymakers in the Asia-Pacific region. The summit attracts defense ministers, military chiefs, legislators, academic experts, journalists, and business delegates from primarily Asia-Pacific states.

The 19th SLD took place on 10-12 June 2022 after a two-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, was the keynote speaker, with representatives from 42 countries attending, including 37 ministerial-level delegates and over 30 senior defense officials. The 2023 SLD, held on 2-4 June, featured a keynote speech by Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu on June 4, 2023. Li proposed the Global Security Initiative (GSI) as a means to conform to world peace and development trends, emphasizing China's vision for security in the Asia-Pacific region.

During the summit, tensions between the US and China over Taiwan, South China Sea, and semiconductor chip exports were evident. Li Shangfu warned against using freedom-of-navigation patrols as a pretext for hegemony, while US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin criticized China's refusal of military talks. Despite the tensions, the two officials shook hands at dinner.

In a secret meeting held concurrently with the SLD, senior officials from around two dozen major intelligence agencies discussed Russia's war in Ukraine and transnational crime. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue summit on June 3, 2023, emphasizing the US alliance with Asia-Pacific countries and criticizing China's "dangerous operational behavior at sea or in international airspace."

Indonesia's defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, proposed a peace plan for the war in Ukraine at the SLD, including a ceasefire, establishing a demilitarized zone, and monitoring by a UN peacekeeping force. Subianto also suggested a UN referendum to determine the wishes of inhabitants in disputed areas.

The Shangri-La Dialogue has proven essential in discussing peace, security initiatives, and addressing tensions between nations. As the world navigates complex geopolitical landscapes, the significance of such forums in fostering dialogue and cooperation cannot be understated. The SLD provides an opportunity for nations to find common ground and work towards a more peaceful and stable world.

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