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06.06.2023
THEME: WORLD

NATO's Swedish Dilemma and the Global Chessboard of Conflict

As global tensions rise and alliances are tested, the upcoming NATO summit on July 11 in Vilnius, Lithuania, is of significant importance. With Finland having already joined the alliance earlier this year, NATO aims to admit Sweden by this date. However, Turkey and Hungary are currently blocking Sweden's accession, with Turkey accusing Sweden of allowing Kurdish terror groups to operate within its borders and being complicit in far-right protests and Quran burnings. This objection comes at a time when NATO has experienced increased unity and defense spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Turkey's veto could undermine this progress.

The deadline for Sweden's accession holds critical implications for the Western alliance, as missing it could signal weakness to adversaries. In response, the US and UK are offering Sweden assurances and prioritizing its accession, while Turkey seeks approval from the US Congress for its purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. Concurrently, Russia claims to have thwarted a major Ukrainian attack in Donetsk, killing 300 troops and destroying 16 tanks. This increase in military activity suggests a Ukrainian counter-offensive may have begun, with Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting troops "moving forward" towards Bakhmut.

Meanwhile, in the Asia-Pacific region, China and Russia conducted a joint aerial strategic patrol on May 24, 2022, marking their sixth joint patrol over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. This comes amid rising tensions in the region and no meeting between Chinese and US defense chiefs at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The US has made provocations, including sending a spy plane to the South China Sea and partnering with Canada in a warship transit in the Taiwan Straits. NATO's potential expansion into the Asia-Pacific region has raised concerns after Japan announced a plan to open NATO's first liaison office in Asia. The China-Russia joint strategic patrol serves as a counterbalance to US hegemonic actions and demonstrates their capabilities in safeguarding peace and stability in the West Pacific.

Back in Europe, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam was destroyed in southern Ukraine, causing thousands of people to be evacuated from surrounding areas due to flooding. Ukraine's military and NATO accuse Russia of blowing up the dam, while Russia blames Ukraine. The dam, built during the Soviet era, is one of six dams along the Dnipro river and holds water equal to the Great Salt Lake in Utah, US. The breach in the dam has caused flooding downstream in the direction of Kherson, impacting 16,000 people living in the critical zone and contaminating the river with 150 tonnes of industrial lubricant. The International Atomic Energy Agency is monitoring the situation, as the dam supplies water to communities, farmers, and the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia. The dam is also vital for carrying water to Russian-occupied Crimea, and its destruction could worsen Ukraine's energy problem and disrupt irrigation in Crimea.

As the global chessboard of conflict unfolds, the upcoming NATO summit and Sweden's potential accession hold significant implications for the balance of power. The interconnected nature of global politics means that decisions made in one part of the world can have ripple effects elsewhere, and all eyes will be on Vilnius come July 11. Will NATO maintain its unity and continue to expand, or will internal divisions and external pressures cause the alliance to falter? Only time will tell.

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05.06.2023
THEME: ENVIRONMENT

Microplastics Swarm the Open Ocean: The Disturbing Findings from The Ocean Race

Recent findings from The Ocean Race have revealed alarming concentrations of microplastics in the world's oceans, including the most remote areas. With concentrations up to 1,884 particles per cubic meter of seawater, this is an 18-fold increase from the 2017-18 Ocean Race. Microplastics, tiny plastic particles measuring between 0.03 mm and 5 mm, pose a significant threat to marine life and ecosystems.

The Ocean Race, a 62,000km sailing competition that began in January and finishes in July, allows sailors to collect data on various environmental factors in locations rarely reached by research vessels. So far, 40 samples have been analyzed, with microplastics found in each one. The highest concentrations were found near urban areas, coastlines, and "garbage patch" areas. Even near Point Nemo, the most remote area in the ocean, 320 microplastic particles per cubic meter were found, a significant increase from the 9-41 particles found during the last race.

These high concentrations of microplastics near shorelines are particularly concerning for fisheries production and the blue economy, which relies heavily on healthy marine ecosystems. The microplastics research is part of a science program during The Ocean Race, involving two teams: GUYOT environnement - Team Europe and Team Holcim - PRB. The samples are sent daily to the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) for analysis, with support from the University of Rhode Island.

The Ocean Race science initiative is part of the Racing with Purpose sustainability program, and all teams in the competition carry equipment to collect data on human impact on the ocean. The race started in Alicante, Spain on 15th January 2023 and will end in Genova, Italy in June. This year's race is also analyzing microplastic fibers, which were not tested in the previous edition. The Ocean Race contributes data to the Ocean Decade Odyssey project, part of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030).

In conclusion, the alarming increase in microplastic concentrations found during The Ocean Race highlights the urgent need for global action to reduce plastic pollution and protect our oceans. The race serves as a stark reminder of the human impact on even the most remote areas of our planet, emphasizing the importance of preserving the health and sustainability of our oceans for future generations.

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04.06.2023
THEME: WORLD

Shangri-La Dialogue: A Platform for Peace, Tensions, and New Security Initiatives

The Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) is an annual inter-governmental security conference held in Singapore since 2002, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). It serves as a crucial platform for fostering a sense of community among defense and security policymakers in the Asia-Pacific region. The summit attracts defense ministers, military chiefs, legislators, academic experts, journalists, and business delegates from primarily Asia-Pacific states.

The 19th SLD took place on 10-12 June 2022 after a two-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, was the keynote speaker, with representatives from 42 countries attending, including 37 ministerial-level delegates and over 30 senior defense officials. The 2023 SLD, held on 2-4 June, featured a keynote speech by Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu on June 4, 2023. Li proposed the Global Security Initiative (GSI) as a means to conform to world peace and development trends, emphasizing China's vision for security in the Asia-Pacific region.

During the summit, tensions between the US and China over Taiwan, South China Sea, and semiconductor chip exports were evident. Li Shangfu warned against using freedom-of-navigation patrols as a pretext for hegemony, while US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin criticized China's refusal of military talks. Despite the tensions, the two officials shook hands at dinner.

In a secret meeting held concurrently with the SLD, senior officials from around two dozen major intelligence agencies discussed Russia's war in Ukraine and transnational crime. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue summit on June 3, 2023, emphasizing the US alliance with Asia-Pacific countries and criticizing China's "dangerous operational behavior at sea or in international airspace."

Indonesia's defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, proposed a peace plan for the war in Ukraine at the SLD, including a ceasefire, establishing a demilitarized zone, and monitoring by a UN peacekeeping force. Subianto also suggested a UN referendum to determine the wishes of inhabitants in disputed areas.

The Shangri-La Dialogue has proven essential in discussing peace, security initiatives, and addressing tensions between nations. As the world navigates complex geopolitical landscapes, the significance of such forums in fostering dialogue and cooperation cannot be understated. The SLD provides an opportunity for nations to find common ground and work towards a more peaceful and stable world.

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