NUNZIUM

News That Matters

16/09/2022 ---- 30/09/2022

Today September 30 Putin confirmed the annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia in a televised ceremony in the Kremlin's St. George's Hal, justified by the so-called “referendums”. He added that “….(they) are becoming our citizens forever” and that Russia “will defend its land with all the means available”. Ukraine and the West have renounced the vote as a sham and said they will never recognize the Ukrainian regions as being part of Russia. Reactions are escalating with the EU promising more opposition and economic sanctions, Ukraine promising continued military effort, and the US and Russia exchanging threats. Finland announced the closure of its borders to Russian tourists starting midnight. Additional tension is due to four gas leaks that occurred on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on Monday. They were preceded by two large explosions that were registered by seismologists, indicating that it was a deliberate attack. To date, no pointers have yet emerged as to who might have done it and why. The damage now likely prevents transporting any gas to Europe even if the political situation changes. German security agencies are concerned that Nord Stream 1 may become unusable forever and the EU is now investigating the incident and promising countermeasures. Naval forces have been deployed from the Baltic to the Mediterranean seas to protect continental infrastructures. While NATO and US accused Russia, the Kremlin rejected accusations saying it was not in Russia's interest to stop the gas flow through the pipelines. Dmitry Peskov (Press Secretary) and Sergey Lavrov (Foreign Affairs) declared investigations are needed and that Russia would call for a UN Security Council over the matter. Putin himself defined it as an "unprecedented sabotage" and "an act of international terrorism”, accusing the US and saying that “it is obvious to everyone who did it”. In the meantime, Germany's government says it will spend up to €200 billion to help consumers and businesses cope with rising energy prices: a decision likely to spread through the EU countries. Further, a final measure of the EU commission on the price cap on energy imports will also be decided or rejected by mid-October.

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On Wednesday the experimental drug “lecanemab”, developed by Eisai (Japan) and Biogen (USA), has been declared efficient as a result of a large phase 3 clinical study involving 1795 patients with early Alzheimer’s disease. With high statistical significance, lecanemab has shown a reduction in clinical decline in patients. It has been shown that the drug slowed the progress of the disease by 27% compared to the placebo. Toxic plaques made of “amyloid-beta” proteins are considered the probable cause of Alzheimer’s disease. The drug reduced the number of toxic plaques in the brain and slowed the decline in memory and ability to perform daily tasks. Lecanemab has been the first one able to successfully slow cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s patients. This is a great achievement for science and medicine, which now offer hope for patients and their families desperate for effective treatment. The multinational pharmacology company Roche, together with Genentech and the Swiss laboratory AC Immune is developing a second drug based on the same principle, which hopefully will even reinforce future treatments.

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On September 20 the Russian-installed leaders of four regions of southern and eastern Ukraine - Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk - called for referendums to join Russia. Today the first results have been released: with no surprise, a large majority was declared in favor of annexation to Russia. It means around 15% of Ukrainian territory - an area about the size of Hungary or Portugal - is now under the direct control of the Kremlin. From today the Kremlin’s narrative may switch to claim Russia itself is under attack from NATO weapons: this justified several threats to the use of nuclear weapons in the last few days as well as the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of Russian troops. The international reactions are mixed in the level of condemnation of the process, but almost every state (including China and India) are asking to stop the war as soon as possible. Russian state media claim that the vote has been regular and that observers from all over the world (including France and Germany) reported no violations. However, western media noted that the process has been breaching the United Nations Principles for international observation: first of all an international election observer mission must respect the “sovereignty of the country holding elections,” and the host country – in this case, Ukraine – should invite international observers. US and NATO members already condemned the vote before the results were known. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in a tweet that he spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and told him that the military alliance is "unwavering" in its support for Ukraine's sovereignty and right to self-defense. As previously stated, Kyiv is likely to continue in the pursuit of its military goals - which include the “liberation of Ukraine until Crimea”. After Putin announced mobilization last week, long queues have been reported at the frontiers with Georgia, Finland, and Kazakhstan, where men were questioned about their military eligibility before being allowed through. Spontaneous manifestations have flared across Russia and continue in a wave of protests involving thousands - despite penalties for those fleeing a mandatory military call-up by up to 10 years of jail since Saturday. In the meantime, two leaks on the Russian-owned Nord Stream 1 pipeline in Swedish and Danish waters, shortly after a leak on the nearby Nord Stream 2 project, were discovered. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU. He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine.

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The mandatory dress code in Iran, which applies to all nationalities and religions (not just Iranian Muslims), requires women to conceal their hair and neck with a headscarf. A law enforced shortly after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Last Friday a 22 years old woman named Mahsa Amini from Kurdistan was in Tehran with her family when she was detained by the so-called morality police for wearing an “improper” headscarf. Shortly after she was transferred to the hospital and died in a few days - the family of the young lady claimed the death resulted by act of brutality of the police itself. Several days of protests have ensued since Amini’s death on Friday. Protesters are demanding an investigation into Amini’s death and the dismantling of the morality police - the same force already criticised in recent years, especially over its treatment of young women. Dozens are thought to have been killed and thousands arrested during the protests so far, but the authorities – who describe the protests as “riots” – have yet to publish official tallies. To justify several arrests, they are claiming through the state media that behind protests there are revolutionary forces. While many in Iran are concerned about separatist groups, protesters in the streets are displaying levels of anger and frustration not seen in years. Such protests, related to violation of women’s right, may mark the urgent need of the Islamic Republic to leave behind some religious traditions, in favour of women freedom. Rallies in support of Iranian women have occurred around the world. In Paris and London, to prevent attacks to the Iranian embassies, anti-riot police tactics where employed to control thousands of protesters.

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Sweden and Italy, two key nations in the EU group, made a substantial step towards far-right politics in the latest elections this year. On September 11 Sweden voted for a new parliament: as a result the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals had held a one-seat lead after Sunday's election. Sweden PM Magdalena Andersson - first woman PM - resigned to allow the election of a new president and government. These elections mark a significant change in Sweden political landscape: never before have the Sweden Democrats, a party who relies on anti-immigration and nationalist rhetoric, been part of a government. Further, they are now the leading force in the right coalition. Yesterday it was Italy’s turn: the three parties forming the right coalition won the elections collecting 44,2% consent and a very strong majority in both Parliament and Senate chambers. The result is particularly significant as far-right party Fratelli d’Italia - translation “Brothers of Italy” - exploded to a striking 26,5%. A conservative nationalist force which directly traces its roots to the Italian Social Movement - a neo-Fascist party created in the wake of Benito Mussolini's demise. Their leader - who is likely the next PM - is known for calling Mussolini a "good politician" who "did everything he did for Italy" and for employing a hard-right rhetorical style that emphasises "God, fatherland and family” as well as lambasting LGBTQ+ "lobbies" and “Islamist violence”. Standing alongside her is Matteo Salvini from the Lega Nord - translation “Northern League” - which began in the 1990s as a secessionist movement. He is standing on a manifesto which is consistent with anti-immigration, promising cuts to clandestine arrivals. Salvini has also been a longtime admirer of Vladimir Putin and claimed multiple times that sanctions are hurting Italians more than Russians. The third of the parties is ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia - translation “Go Italy”. His party may have a more moderate approach, but it’s his personal history of scandals - his tax evasion conviction in 2013, his decades old friendship with Putin, and allegations of soliciting sexual services from a minor - that has attracted more scrutiny. The electoral results means he still holds considerable power. Overall, the far-right victory is an historic one because it brings full power to a party that is further to the right than any mainstream political movement Italy has seen since the days of its former fascist leader, Benito Mussolini (historic ally of Adolf Hitler). This happening in a key founder state of the EU may be the premise to unpredictable debates and change of politics in the old continent.

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A study led by Durham University’s Fetal and Neonatal Research Lab in the UK has studied, for the first time, the reaction of foetuses to the flavours and smells of the mother’s diet. Foetuses can experience taste and smell through the inhalation and swallowing of amniotic fluid in the womb. Scientists performed 4D ultrasound scans of 100 pregnant women and looked at how the foetuses reacted to carrots or kale - just a few minutes after these were ingested by the mother. It has been observed that foetuses exposed to carrot showed more “laughter-face” responses while those exposed to kale showed more “cry-face” responses. These evidences help to understand the development of our taste and smell and the related perception and memory. Scientists have now begun a follow-up study with the same babies post-birth to see if the influence of flavours they experienced in the womb affects their acceptance of different foods. The same approach is likely to give, in the next future, understanding of what reactions foetuses have to alcohol and smoking, and if these exposures will impact the newborn too. How do foetuses react to mother’s smoking or drinking alcohol? It will be interesting to learn.

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Yesterday the Russian-installed leaders of four regions of southern and eastern Ukraine - Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk - have reiterated urgent calls for referendums to join Russia, to be held between September 23 and 27. It means around 15% of Ukrainian territory - an area about the size of Hungary or Portugal - would vote on joining Russia similarly to how Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, after a vote that drew international condemnation. Annexing more Ukrainian territory would also enable the Kremlin to claim Russia itself was coming under attack from Nato weapons. This acceleration of events comes shortly after other leaders, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SOC) meeting last week, directly met with Putin. In particular, president of India Modi expressed concern, while president of Turkey Erdogan has recently said convincingly that the Kremlin "wants to end the war as soon as possible". Authorities in Russia have already declared the interest in the legitimacy of the accession referendum procedure, and in their approval by the SCO and BRICS. They also declared that representatives of the media, including foreign ones, will be invited to the referendum, and the regions also requested organisational aid from Russia and other states. This is how Putin justified further mobilisation of Russian troops starting today. On the other hand, president of Ukraine Zelensky declared that "Our positions are not changed by noise and announcements from somewhere, and our partners fully support us on that," promising a continued effort to regain these territories and Crimea. The progress of the counteroffensive means Ukraine could soon launch an assault on Russian forces in the occupied Donbas region.

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In the last months we witnessed natural catastrophic events around the world. More recently, an heavy storm provoked a severe flooding in Italy on September 15, causing deaths and several missed people. On Monday September 19 the typhoon Nanmadol - one of the biggest storm in years - barrelled through southwestern Japan. It killed 4 people and injured more than 100 others. On Sunday 18 hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic causing floods. In Italy extreme weather occurred in August, with temperatures peaking at 48.8 Celsius - breaking the European record. In early July, 11 people were killed when a huge mass of ice from a glacier on the north side of the Marmolada mountain in the Dolomites broke away, causing an avalanche. This summer, the Mediterranean sea was five degrees warmer than its average. Record heatwaves this summer were recorded in the whole Northern Hemisphere, with severe droughts in China and central EU. Scientist are currently investigating whether climate change could increase the frequency of these events: as it has been reported that events as hurricane are subject to a number of climate change-related influences, such as warmer sea surface temperatures and sea level rise, a correlation is likely.

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Since Orban's ruling Fidesz party came to power in 2010 the conflict between the EU and Hungary - one of the main block’s beneficiaries - has steadily grown. In 2018 a resolution of the EU Parliament declared a violation of Article 7 of the EU Treaty: breaching of EU's founding values. The report raised concerns about a long list of fundamental rights considered to be under threat, including the electoral system, the independence of judiciary, privacy, freedom of expression, media pluralism, academic freedom, LGBT rights and the protection of minorities and asylum seekers. On September 15 Members of the European Parliament further voted to condemn the “deliberate and systematic efforts of the Hungarian government” to undermine European values - 433 votes for, 123 against, and 28 abstentions. The situation has deteriorated such that Hungary has become an “electoral autocracy”. The EU Council can now decide to suspend any rights of membership, such as voting, representation, and block financial support now amounting to billions in the context of the ongoing recovery plan. Financial penalties would be imposed due to alleged fraudulent behavior and rule of law violations. All this in a moment where Hungary's economy is experiencing its highest inflation in nearly 25 years, while its currency recently reached record lows against the euro and the dollar. “I find it funny," Orbán said. “The only reason we don’t laugh at it is because we’re bored of it. It's a boring joke. It’s the third or fourth time they’ve passed a resolution condemning Hungary in the European Parliament. At first, we thought it was significant. But now we see it as a joke." It is with these premises that on September 18 the European Commission called for an estimated € 7.5 Billions in European funds to be withheld from Hungary over corruption concerns. The Council now has one month to decide whether to go ahead with the Commission's recommendation - in which case Commission could freeze funds to Budapest from 19 November at the earliest. Yet, the Commission left the door open for remedial measures by 19 November. To date, additionally, Hungary is the only member state not to have had its plan to receive some of the €800 billion of post-COVID recovery funds approved by Brussels. The Commission has asked for reforms in exchange for green-lighting the plan. Overall, it looks like a lot of hard work for president Orbán, on top of what has been defined a “boring joke”.

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The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was set up in 2001 as a political, economic and security organisation to rival Western institutions. Member countries are China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This year, among others, also leaders of Belarus, Iran, and Turkey participated to the meeting - which took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. President of China Xi Jinping, president of Russia Vladimir Putin, president of India Narendra Modi, and president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan were present. This meeting marks another milestone towards a more intense financial, economic, and political cooperation between nations in Central Asia. Russia has closed deals with Turkey, India, China, and Mongolia to increase significantly energy export towards Asia. President Xi, during his keynote speech, outlined several priorities going forward for the SCO state members, including enhancing solidarity and cooperation, maintaining strategic independence and safeguarding regional stability, pursuing inclusiveness and shared benefits in promoting development cooperation. On the situation in Ukraine, with counteroffensives underway against Russia, some contrasting views were shared: while Putin confirmed Russia’s will to endure until reaching “liberation of Donbas”, no direct support was offered by any country - China included - and India’s president Modi further expressed concern. In his words: “I know today’s era is not of war. We discussed this issue with you on phone several times, that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue touch the entire world […] Today the biggest worry before the world, especially developing countries, is food security, fuel security, fertilisers. We must find ways to these problems and you will also have to consider” he said to Putin. The meeting concluded with leaders signing a declaration containing statements of shared effort on safeguarding global food security and energy security, addressing climate change, and maintaining a secure, stable and diversified supply chain.

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