NUNZIUM

News That Matters

01/09/2022 ---- 19/09/2022

In the last months we witnessed natural catastrophic events around the world. More recently, an heavy storm provoked a severe flooding in Italy on September 15, causing deaths and several missed people. On Monday September 19 the typhoon Nanmadol - one of the biggest storm in years - barrelled through southwestern Japan. It killed 4 people and injured more than 100 others. On Sunday 18 hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic causing floods. In Italy extreme weather occurred in August, with temperatures peaking at 48.8 Celsius - breaking the European record. In early July, 11 people were killed when a huge mass of ice from a glacier on the north side of the Marmolada mountain in the Dolomites broke away, causing an avalanche. This summer, the Mediterranean sea was five degrees warmer than its average. Record heatwaves this summer were recorded in the whole Northern Hemisphere, with severe droughts in China and central EU. Scientist are currently investigating whether climate change could increase the frequency of these events: as it has been reported that events as hurricane are subject to a number of climate change-related influences, such as warmer sea surface temperatures and sea level rise, a correlation is likely.

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Since Orban's ruling Fidesz party came to power in 2010 the conflict between the EU and Hungary - one of the main block’s beneficiaries - has steadily grown. In 2018 a resolution of the EU Parliament declared a violation of Article 7 of the EU Treaty: breaching of EU's founding values. The report raised concerns about a long list of fundamental rights considered to be under threat, including the electoral system, the independence of judiciary, privacy, freedom of expression, media pluralism, academic freedom, LGBT rights and the protection of minorities and asylum seekers. On September 15 Members of the European Parliament further voted to condemn the “deliberate and systematic efforts of the Hungarian government” to undermine European values - 433 votes for, 123 against, and 28 abstentions. The situation has deteriorated such that Hungary has become an “electoral autocracy”. The EU Council can now decide to suspend any rights of membership, such as voting, representation, and block financial support now amounting to billions in the context of the ongoing recovery plan. Financial penalties would be imposed due to alleged fraudulent behavior and rule of law violations. All this in a moment where Hungary's economy is experiencing its highest inflation in nearly 25 years, while its currency recently reached record lows against the euro and the dollar. “I find it funny," Orbán said. “The only reason we don’t laugh at it is because we’re bored of it. It's a boring joke. It’s the third or fourth time they’ve passed a resolution condemning Hungary in the European Parliament. At first, we thought it was significant. But now we see it as a joke." It is with these premises that on September 18 the European Commission called for an estimated € 7.5 Billions in European funds to be withheld from Hungary over corruption concerns. The Council now has one month to decide whether to go ahead with the Commission's recommendation - in which case Commission could freeze funds to Budapest from 19 November at the earliest. Yet, the Commission left the door open for remedial measures by 19 November. To date, additionally, Hungary is the only member state not to have had its plan to receive some of the €800 billion of post-COVID recovery funds approved by Brussels. The Commission has asked for reforms in exchange for green-lighting the plan. Overall, it looks like a lot of hard work for president Orbán, on top of what has been defined a “boring joke”.

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The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was set up in 2001 as a political, economic and security organisation to rival Western institutions. Member countries are China, India, Pakistan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This year, among others, also leaders of Belarus, Iran, and Turkey participated to the meeting - which took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. President of China Xi Jinping, president of Russia Vladimir Putin, president of India Narendra Modi, and president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan were present. This meeting marks another milestone towards a more intense financial, economic, and political cooperation between nations in Central Asia. Russia has closed deals with Turkey, India, China, and Mongolia to increase significantly energy export towards Asia. President Xi, during his keynote speech, outlined several priorities going forward for the SCO state members, including enhancing solidarity and cooperation, maintaining strategic independence and safeguarding regional stability, pursuing inclusiveness and shared benefits in promoting development cooperation. On the situation in Ukraine, with counteroffensives underway against Russia, some contrasting views were shared: while Putin confirmed Russia’s will to endure until reaching “liberation of Donbas”, no direct support was offered by any country - China included - and India’s president Modi further expressed concern. In his words: “I know today’s era is not of war. We discussed this issue with you on phone several times, that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue touch the entire world […] Today the biggest worry before the world, especially developing countries, is food security, fuel security, fertilisers. We must find ways to these problems and you will also have to consider” he said to Putin. The meeting concluded with leaders signing a declaration containing statements of shared effort on safeguarding global food security and energy security, addressing climate change, and maintaining a secure, stable and diversified supply chain.

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Whereas women can choose between many methods of contraception, so far the choice for men is reduced to condom or vasectomy - which implies permanent infertility. To overcome this barrier, scientist at the University of Minnesota developed a male pill soon to be tested in a human clinical trial. So far, the data showed that the pill is 99 per cent effective in mice without causing adverse effects. Another option is coming from the University of Edinburgh, where a team developed a shoulder gel releasing the hormone progestin, able to block testosterone production and therefore reducing sperm production. The gel is being evaluated in Phase 2 clinical trials in US. Getting these new options to the market will take between 5 and 10 years mainly because the trials must not only demonstrate the efficacy of the product in preventing the pregnancies, but also the reversibility of the effect - meaning that the couples must manage to conceive once they decide to stop the treatment. With female rights debate on the rise, especially after the decision of the US Supreme Court about the right of abortion (June 24) and the anti-abortion laws passed in Hungary (September 15), male contraceptives may slowly become important to political and societal debates.

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Currently up to 21985 cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in the US and 23000 cases in Europe. Although monkeypox is rarely fatal, people with a weak immune system are more likely to get seriously ill or die. It was the case for a Los Angeles resident who died last Monday after being hospitalised. It is the second fatal case monkeypox certificated in the US since May 2022. On September 13, in occasion of the 72nd session of the WHO Regional Committee for Europe, the Commissioner for Health and Food Safety and WHO Regional Director for Europe declared that the virus, previously only linked to person-person spread in non-endemic countries, now represents a public health emergency of international concern. EU and WHO reconfirmed their joint efforts to prevent monkeypox from becoming endemic in Europe and better protect the citizens.

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On September 12 Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "since the beginning of September our soldiers have already liberated 6,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, and we are continuing to advance". It is yet not clear if this counteroffensive could be the tipping point of the war. However, it is confirmed also from Russian sources that Kremlin’s troops have lost key cities in the north-eastern Kharkiv region and are under pressure in other key locations in the South. To date Russia still holds one fifth of the country and maintains troops and munitions in Ukrainian territory. Eastern media argue that this will lead to a prolonged conflict. In the meantime in Russia the sentiment that the “special military operation” was a mistake is mounting: dozens of municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg have called on President Vladimir Putin to resign in an open letter published Monday, despite the signatories being now at risk of severe punishment. “President Putin's actions are detrimental to the future of Russia and its citizens” reads the petition. Even more notable, such criticism seeped onto state-controlled Russian TV. “People who convinced President Putin that the operation will be fast and effective ... these people really set up all of us,” Boris Nadezhdin, a former parliament member, said on a talk show on NTV television. “We're now at the point where we have to understand that it's absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using these resources and colonial war methods.” Despite this criticism the Kremlin continues to state that the objectives of the special military operations will be achieved as Russia’s forces are now being reinforced.

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The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. A study published on September 8 on Science highlights the importance of such objectives: by reviewing historic records and more than 200 peer-reviewed works, scientists determined that multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. By “tipping point” is meant the minimum amount of warming that might trigger a catastrophic shift in a system. The team found that at the current level of global warming - 1.1°C since the preindustrial era - Earth has already passed the low-end risk estimate for five tipping points, putting coral reefs, permafrost, and polar ice at risk. For polar ice sheets, however, the authors estimate that 1.5°C is the more likely tipping threshold, and that the sheets might be able to withstand as much as 3°C of warming without irreversible decline. Despite the study also indicates that a lot of really bad tipping points are still avoidable, lead author David Armstrong McKay from Stockholm Resilience Centre, University of Exeter, and the Earth Commission says that “the chance of crossing tipping points can be reduced by rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions, starting immediately”.

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New York Governor Kathy Hochul declared a disaster emergency on Friday in a bid to accelerate efforts to vaccinate residents against polio after the virus was detected in wastewater samples taken in four counties. In early August a health official in New York State had already announced that there could be hundreds or even thousands of undiagnosed cases of polio. The vaccination is the only weapon against this virus. In the state of New York polio vaccination rate is only 79% - some counties having even lower rates. The position of the World Health organisation is clear and states that "All children worldwide should be fully vaccinated against polio, and every country should seek to achieve and maintain high levels of coverage with polio vaccines in support of the global commitment to eradicate polio." In some areas of US the access to health care and therefore vaccination are limited due to the high cost of health insurance.

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Yesterday the European Central Bank raised three key interest rates by 75 basis points each: such drastic measure was implemented to fight the high inflation across the continent, mostly due to the ongoing energy crisis. With this premise, today September 9 the energy ministers of EU countries met in Bruxelles to discuss a series of exceptional measures to curb soaring electricity bills. The focus was on five points: (1) introduction of mandatory savings during peak hours, (2) a revenue cap for new producers, (3) capturing excess profits from fossil fuel companies, (4) liquidity aids to utility businesses, (5) a price cap on Russian gas imports. The outcome of this meeting gives to the European Commission a clearer political mandate on how to proceed: there is agreement on necessity to introduce energy saving measures, guarantee liquidity to utility businesses, capping revenues for new producers, and to take a solidarity contribution from fossil fuel companies. The ministers also “expect the Commission to propose emergency and temporary intervention including the gas price cap” said Jozef Síkela - EU minster of Industry and Trade - at the press conference after the meeting. In conclusion, in his words: “When Putin started his energy war he expected to divide us and damage our democratic societies and economies. Hi will not succeed, Europe is united against his aggression”. Concrete legislative proposals on these aspects are expected by the Commission within days.

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In a world where energy crisis and scarcity of natural fossil fuels is more and more problematic, nuclear physics may be once again what separates present and future times. Nuclear fusion promises near-limitless clean energy by mimicking the natural reactions occurring in the Sun. In the past few years several advancements moved fusion towards commercialisation, which may now be only decades away. So far, state-of-the-art magnetic fusion devices could not yet achieve a sustainable fusion performance, which requires a high temperature above 100 million kelvin and sufficient control of instabilities to ensure steady-state operation on the order of tens of seconds. A study published don September 2 in Nature by a team from Seoul National University and the Korea Institute of Fusion Energy - experimented with the reactor at the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) - reported generation of plasmas at a temperature of 100 million kelvin lasting up to 20 seconds without edge instabilities or impurity accumulation. For the first time, a fusion regime rarely subject to disruption and sustained without a sophisticated control is shown. It thus represents a promising path towards commercial fusion reactors. KSTAR is a pilot project that feeds information and technologies into the ITER project. In addition to South Korea, ITER’s 35 member states include China, India, Japan, the EU (including the UK), Russia and the United States. ITER was propelled into force when US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met in Geneva in 1985, granting the project with the mandate of benefitting mankind. Multiple countries subsequently joined. In 2005, the international body agreed – after strong bids from Paris and Tokyo – to build ITER in southern France. Construction is underway in Saint Paul-lez-Durance and the ITER facility is expected to come online in December 2025. Experts say that by 2035 most feasibility questions will be answered and by 2050 the commercial sector is likely to use fusion plants.

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Elisabeth was queen of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms from 6 February 1952 until her death on 8 September 2022 at the age of 96. Elizabeth reigned as a constitutional monarch through major political changes such as the Troubles in Northern Ireland, devolution in the United Kingdom, the decolonisation of Africa, and the United Kingdom's accession to the European Communities and withdrawal from the European Union. Elizabeth was the longest-lived and longest-reigning British monarch in history. The Crown passes now to her son and heir Charles in an extremely difficult moment for England and the world. Rest in peace Queen Elisabeth.

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Greece and Turkey have come close to war three times in the last half-century mainly due to Aegean Sea islands disputes and immigration. Ankara and Athens are also now entangled in a dispute over the right to explore for hydrocarbons near Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, where Cyprus and several Greek islands are also located. In the past few few weeks president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who must contest elections by June next year, made several aggressive statements against the neighbouring country. He said on Monday that “Greece is not at our level, just as it is not our equal politically, economically, or militarily” in televised comments. He previously stated that Turkey may “come suddenly one night” amid a revival in accusations by his government that Greece has been illegally militarising islands near Turkey’s coastline. Greece denies the charges. “Your occupying the islands does not bind us. When the time, the hour, comes, we will do what is necessary”. This week the relationship reached a new low point as Greece’s government has written to NATO, EU, and the head of the United Nations asking them to condemn the aggressive talk by Turkey. Greece is warning the allies that current bilateral tensions could escalate into a second open conflict on European soil. In addition to this bilateral diatribe, statements have been directed also against the EU arguing it has an anti-Turkish attitude: “We know very well why the EU, which we are waiting to join, excludes us and includes countries that cannot be compared to us”. At only a few hours of the heavy statements by “Asian block” nations at the EEF, Erdogan said that “there is a West that is leading a policy based on provocation against Russia, which is not correct and will not be able to achieve any result”, adding that other countries should not underestimate Russia. His statements accompany a series of steps towards East: Turkey has not joined the Western sanctions regime against Russia and recently signed a new economic cooperation agreement with Moscow, including provisions of natural gas. Erdogan is expected to meet Putin at a regional summit in Uzbekistan next week. Chinese President Xi Jinping will also attend.

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It was a hot plenary session on September 7 at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. In this session president of Russia Vladimir Putin and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China Li Zhanshu took the floor. Putin’s plenary session lasted approximately 37 minutes becoming the longest one compared to his previous speeches at this forum. He predicts that the competitiveness of European companies will decrease since the EU administration is forbidding access to raw materials and energy at affordable prices. In his words: “The level of quality of life Europe has attained is being burned to fuel this sanctions machine in the name of the so-called Atlantic Unity” and said that it will be no coincidence if the global dominance of some EU companies is going to be replaced by American counterparts. He stated that the Russian federation is launching a number of projects to develop Russia far-East with new cities and universities, with the aim to attract corporations and highly trained people from the world. In conclusion, he stressed that as most Asian nations have rejected sanctions imposed by Western countries the logic of cooperation, of pooling of potentials and of mutual benefit with reliable partners - in particular Asian countries - will allow for a sustainable long-term development and a flourishing economy in the future. By replying questions, Putin also stated that Russia has benefited from the military operation in Ukraine through strengthening Russia’s sovereignty. He also accused the EU of “cheating” to import of grain through Turkey, grain which would be destined to developing countries. However, he also admits there is no breach of any signed contract. As a remedy, he announces negotiations to limit grain export to Western destinations in order to favour poorer countries. On gas provisions to EU, which is currently stopped, he accused Ukraine and Poland of sanctioning and shutting down pipelines and UK to sabotage all efforts to repair Nord Stream 1 by leveraging maintenance contracts signed with the British division of Siemens - the company providing the turbine that needs repair. On the price cap decided by G7 on September 2 he stated that “this decision has no future” and that the EU attempt to restrict prices will instead lead to a price increase. He rejects allegations of Russia using energy as a weapon and confirms that gas pipelines will be built to increase delivery to China. Li Zhanshu, in his intervention, said that China is interested in the vision of a strong Asian economy and reassured his country’s cooperation with Russia “across the whole spectrum”. In his words: “China believes that Russia is an important partner in international cooperation and will continue to develop cooperation in trade, finance, technology, science, education, and culture”. He also stated that China is ready to actively contribute to the development of Russia far-East. Alongside Putin and Li Zhanshu, in the plenary session short talks were given by Myanmar’s Chairman of the State Administration Council Min Aung Hlaing, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrein Oyun-Erdene.

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The Thwaites Glacier, located in West Antarctica, is one of the widest on Earth and is larger than the state of Florida. It has been nicknamed “doomsday glacier” because of its high rise of collapse and threat to global sea level. In the coming years, scientists say, it has the potential to rapidly retreat, amplifying concerns over the extreme sea level rise that would accompany its potential demise. At some point in the last two centuries, the base of the glacier dislodged from the seabed and retreated at a rate of 1.3 miles (2.1 kilometres) per year. In a study published on September 5 in the journal Nature Geoscience it has been reported that new seabed imagery indicates that the glacier previously retreated at double its current rate, implying that mass loss could accelerate in the near future. The Thwaites Glacier, located in West Antarctica, is one of the widest on Earth and is larger than the state of Florida. But it's just a faction of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which holds enough ice to raise sea level by up to 16 feet, according to NASA. As the climate crisis has accelerated, this region has been closely monitored because of its rapid melting and its capacity for widespread coastal destruction. In 2021, a study showed the Thwaites Ice Shelf, which helps to stabilize the glacier and hold the ice back from flowing freely into the ocean could shatter within five years. The nature is warning us: climate change is happening and the time to find solutions is running out.

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The 7th Eastern Economic Forum EEF, scheduled to be held from September 5 to 8 in Vladivostok, is focused this year on the theme "On the Path to a Multipolar World," according to the official website of the forum. Tomorrow September 7 high officials of the most relevant Asian nations will meet at the (EEF) in bilateral meetings planned around the plenary talk of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Alongside Putin, taking part in the plenary session will be Myanmar’s Chairman of the State Administration Council Min Aung Hlaing, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrein Oyun-Erdene and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China Li Zhanshu. All these nations constitute a large block - the majority of Asia - and their relationships are currently strengthening. This aggregation of interests is accelerated by the Ukraine and Taiwan unresolved issues with Western countries, particularly US. The G20 in Bali, taking place in November, will see the leaders of these nations face to face with EU and US leaders for the first time since the Ukraine war started.

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Across the United Kingdom, businesses and households are warning that they won't make it through the winter without help from the government. That sets up enormous challenges for the incoming prime minister Truss, elected today as successor to Boris Johnson. With inflation running above 10% yearly, soaring energy bills, and the ongoing Brexit consequences the UK is arguably the most impacted European state in the coming winter. During the electoral campaign the PM has defined China a threat - while the bilateral relationship has been growing in the past decade: a course inversion that could bring further economic turmoil. On other foreign matters such as pending issues with the EU and the will to see Russia defeated in Ukraine, new PM Truss is likely to continue the doing of her predecessor. With other nations already taking significant economic measures, PM Truss - already defined as the new Iron Lady - has the possibility to write history for her country in such a complex historical moment.

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On September 4 2022 Chile voted on the proposal to adopt a new constitution where social inclusion, ecology, gender parity, indigenous rights are unmovable pillars. The text contains a number of articles designed to boost science, expand environmental protection and improve the nation’s education system. These stand in stark contrast to the contents of the text enacted more than four decades ago under the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. In the past years many Chileans protested economic inequalities and demanded a new constitution. In 2020 the nation voted overwhelmingly to replace the document. A democratically elected assembly, including scientists, teachers, students and Indigenous representatives, formed to draft it. It is the first time in Chile's history a constitution was drafted democratically. With protests in Chile being heavily supported by feminist movements, the draft contains several strong points on gender parity. State bodies and public companies, among other entities, would have gender parity. The state would take measures to eradicate and punish gender violence. The proposal said every person is entitled to sexual and reproductive rights, including the voluntary interruption of pregnancy - abortion in Chile is currently legal only in cases that involve rape, unviable pregnancies or when the mother's life is in danger. The constitution draft also had an entire chapter dedicated to environment, stating that "nature has rights" and that animals are "subjects of special protection." Fighting climate change would be a state duty as would be protecting biodiversity, native species and natural spaces. Wetlands and glaciers would be "excluded from any mining activity" - Chile is the world's largest producer of copper and one of the top lithium producers. Clearly impacting many strong powers (such as mining corporations) the political campaign has been intense and characterised by accusations of misinformation. Today 62% rejected the proposal. Chile remains now with the constitution written by the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.

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Germany has announced a 65 billions package of measure to curb the rising energy costs due to scarce supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told journalists Germany would get through the winter, adding that Russia was "no longer a reliable energy partner".He said the government would make one-off payments to pensioners, people on benefits and students. There would also be caps on energy bills. Some 9,000 energy-intensive businesses would receive tax breaks to the tune of €1.7bn. Countries across Europe are considering similar measures. EU energy ministers are due to meet on 9 September to discuss how to ease the burden of energy prices across the bloc.

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Yesterday Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that Russia will suspend supplies of oil and petroleum products to states which will decide to restrict the price of oil from the country. On the same day the chairman of the board of Russia’s largest private oil company LUKoil (Ravil Maganov, 67) died after falling from a Moscow hospital window plunging from the sixth-floor window of the Central Clinical Hospital - known as the “Kremlin Clinic”. It is with these premises that today September 2 the finance ministers of G7 nations gathered in Elmau (Germany) to decide on the restrictions on Russian oil. The outcome of such meeting shows a strong resolve by EU on this matter. A joint statement has been released: “ […] We will curtail Putin’s capacity to fund his war from oil exports by banning services, such as insurance and the provision of finance, to vessels carrying Russian oil above an agreed price cap. We are united against this barbaric aggression and will do all we can to support Ukraine as they fight for sovereignty, democracy and freedom”. With this the G7 Leaders reaffirmed a shared commitment to preventing Russia from profiting from its war of aggression, to supporting stability in global energy markets and to minimising negative economic spillovers, especially on low- and middle-income countries. To deliver on this commitment, today they confirm a joint political intention to finalise and implement a comprehensive prohibition of services which enable maritime transportation of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products globally – the provision of such services would only be allowed if the oil and petroleum products are purchased at or below a price (“the price cap”) determined by the broad coalition of countries adhering to and implementing the price cap. In the following days and weeks such measures will be implemented, with a reaction by Russia to be expected. A few hours later Gazprom announced the possibility of a prolonged halt of natural gas supply through a key pipeline to Germany (Nord Stream 1), citing the need for urgent maintenance work. Today the energy ministers of G20 nations had a parallel meeting in Bali to discuss energy security. The meeting was wrapped up without producing a joint statement toward a stable supply of energy. Differences between Russia and the West likely prevented their reaching an agreement.

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The Uyghurs are recognised as native to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in Northwest China. They are one of China's 55 officially recognised ethnic minorities. Since 2014 the Chinese government created camps to ensure “adherence to to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ideology, preventing separatism, fighting terrorism, and providing vocational training to Uyghurs”. A report published on Wednesday in the wake of the visit by UN High Commissioner of Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet in May, said that “allegations of patterns of torture, or ill-treatment, including forced medical treatment and adverse conditions of detention, are credible, as are allegations of individual incidents of sexual and gender-based violence.” The UN rights office said that Wednesday’s report was “based on a rigorous review of documentary material currently available to the Office, with its credibility assessed in accordance with standard human rights methodology. At the same time China firmly opposes the release of the so-called Xinjiang-related report by the UN Human Rights Office. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said China attaches importance to balanced promotion of all types of human rights, to dialogue and cooperation with member states, and opposes the wrong practice of politicising human rights and double standards.

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